Round Fourteen AFL Picks


Port Adelaide v Melbourne Demons

Massive Friday night clash between the two teams fighting it out for a spot in the top four of the premiership ladder. Port will host the Demons in the final game of their own 3-game home stand down at the 'Portress'. The Demons are coming off their midseason bye, refreshed, having been brought back to earth a fortnight ago by the Magpies on Queen's Birthday.

Port will continue their purple patch of form having knocked off the reigning the reigning premiers a fortnight ago and then demolishing the Western Bulldogs by 10 goals last week. They are now the new form team of the competition and should they get over Melbourne tonight, will look forward to a month of footy against the Blues, Saints and Dockers upcoming. Ollie Wines signed himself a new contract extension through the week and is a big reason as to why Port have been doing so well. The ball-winning bull is ranked 8th in the league for his clearance work and also ranked 13th for his contested possessions. Not only does he win his own ball, but gets the ball forward on his own accord, too. Paddy Ryder is regaining his touch since returning from his achilles injury a touch over a month ago now and will attempt to dethrone big Gawn for the premier ruckman of this season. Gawn had his own colours lowered a fortnight ago against Brody Grundy and consequently was unable to feed his own midfielders. Ryder's edge will be the work he is able to complete around the ground and forcing Gawn to have to go with him as he has a tendency to float more forward than Grundy does.

How the memory of the AFL public quickly forgets - Just two weeks ago, Port were handling the reigning premiers while, on the same weekend, the Demons were being brought back to reality at the hands of the Magpies. The importance of this game is too important for Port to let go and will be taking full advantage of their home ground advantage on a Friday night to let this one slip them by. Make sure you take up any of the numerous promotions that allow your backed team to go up by 24 points and get paid outearly. This could be an easy watch for Port backers to start our weekend off right.

OTP Recommendation

Port Adelaide To Win4.0u at 1.7+2.8

OTP Recommendation

Port Adelaide -6.52.0u at 1.93+1.86


Hawthorn Hawks v Gold Coast Suns

Not the most enticing game of the round on paper but certainly some value to be had. The Hawks will go down south to Tasmania, where they notoriously play well, and take on a Gold Coast team that had their heart's broken last weekend by the Saints.

The Hawks were extremely impressive last week against the Crows, on the night of their 2008 - 10 year premiership reunion celebrations, winning by just shy of 10 goals. More significantly, the Hawks also celebrated favourite son, Shaun Burgoyne's 350th AFL game in a classy display at the MCG. The game probably says more about where the Crows are at than where the Hawks are, but taking nothing away from the Hawks, they were able to put a mediocre team away when they needed to. James Sicily starred for the brown and gold, booting three goals off the half back line that really examplifies how dangerous this Hawthorn team all over the park. Their superiour kicking skills has allows the Hawks to have a slew of goalkickers on any given week. Gold Coast, on the other hand, seemingly had their hands on the 4 premiership points last week, being up by 39 points midway through the second quarter only to throw the game away. Their ability to not finish a game was on full display as they allowed the Saints to chase them down, on their home deck, and steal victory from them in the dying stages of the game, courtesy of a Gresham checkside. It was never going to be a good result for the losing team and/or coach as both teams have been under severe pressure for several weeks now to perform. The Gold Coast Suns have continued their attrocious scoring form in final terms as they were, for the fourth week in a row now, unable to register a goal in the fourth quarter. They are now 0.2 in the last month for final term scoring. 

Mark my words - the Hawks are coming. They have one of the softest runs in the competition over the next month and it will start with the dismantling of the Gold Coast Suns here. Percentage is going to be vital for a team like the Hawks that will be fighting out the bottom end of the 8 towards the end of the year, and it will be games like this that get them over the line. Take the hawks to win and cover, convincingly against a Suns team in a rut..

OTP Recommendation

Hawthorn -50.52.0u at 1.92+1.84

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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