Round Twelve AFL Picks


Brisbane Lions v Essendon Bombers

Our first play comes last into the round, but we've found value all the same. The Brisbane Lions return to their domain where they'll welcome in Essendon who has their bubble burst last week to the reigning premiers.  

The Bombers were quickly brought back to earth last week at the hands of the Tigers. Admittedly, the lost two early players to injury which made them short on rotation throughout the game. Ridley and Zaharakis were unable to get up for this game and will instead make way for Josh Green and David Myers. The Bombers had enjoyed a good fortnight prior to this game, having knocked off the Giants away from Melbourne and Geelong in Melbourne. It looked like a turning point in the season for the Bombers who have disappointed thus far. Brisbane were found out quickly against a ruthless Kangaroos last week that have their sights firmly set on playing finals. Their big first half against the Lions last week allowed them to keep them at bay for the rest of the match. Brisbane also lost players early in the contest which didn't help their cause and they both won't get up for this game against Essendon. Allen Christensen was able to get up for this game, however Charlie Cameron, who has been ruled out for the year since with his injury, and Mitch Robinson will both miss.

The Lions are very stiff to only have one win for the season and alot of their losses can be chalked up as being 'noble defeats'. Both teams that beat our two teams we're covering here have already lost this round which could be telling for which team has the 'stronger' form of the two. Also worth mentioning that both Essendon and Brisbane both lost players early last week in their respective matchups. Essendon's recent injury concerns do not help their cause but with Essendon travelling interstate and in a bad way themselves with injuries, i'm looking for Brisbane to really stick it to Essendon today at the Gabba and assert themselves from the start to eek their second win of the season.   

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane To Win3.0u at 2.3-3

Melbourne Demons v Collingwood Magpies

Both teams stepping into the Queen's Birthday clash are coming off relatively soft wins last week in round 11 and should be rested enough to give a top showing for this year's Queen's Birthday clash. The Demons did what was expected of them last week against the Bulldogs, burying them by 49 points on a ground the Dogs are known to thrive. The Pies, also, put a team to the sword when they dispatched of a weak Fremantle to the tune of 51 points.
In the last month the Demons have strung together four wins and have rocketted themselves into premiership contention. They are the hottest team in the comp at the moment and have won their last six games on the hop with their average winning margin over the span around the 65-point mark. Tom McDonald was recently rewarded with his hot form in the last two months with a contract extension with the Demons extending beyond this year. He has been a instrumental in being able to kick their large scores and continues to relieve Jesse Hogan up forward from the double team's.  The Pies have quietly been going about their business as well, led by the form ruckman of the competition, Brody Grundy. He is now averaging 46 hit-outs per game and 16 to advantage as he allows his premium midfield to have first use. The Pies have two blemishes on their record for the past two months and they both come from top 4 teams in Richmond and Geelong. 

Touted as 'one of the biggest games for Melbourne in  10 years', and rightfully so as well. This will be the best opposition the Demons have come up against in the last five weeks and will try and break the long standing streak the Pies hold over the Demons on Queen's Birthday. I'm expecting the Demons bubble to burst and them come crashing back to earth. The Pies have played slightly better competition in the period the Demons have been belting teams and it should show. However, should the Pies not bring their best to the 'G on Monday, take the line and expect a close game right to the end. 

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood +11.52.5u at 1.91+2.27

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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