Round Ten AFL Picks


Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

A rare Friday night game for OTP presents us some value and we'll be making it our first play for the weekend. Collingwood open up round 10 after comfortably accounting for the Saints last week by 28 points. The Doggies return to Melbourne after slogging it out against the Crows in the torrential rains of Adaide oval.

The Pies are starting to put some good games together, albeit against lesser opponents, and have done this on the back of the form ruckman of the competition. Brody Grundy is giving his midfielders first use of the ball and continues to be a barometer for how well the Pies go in their matches. Grundy had himself 42 hit-outs and a casual 23 touches to go with it against the Saints and would only have to this again this week to be just as influential. Jordan De Goey has finally found his footing at the Pies have to an year or so, getting himself into mischief off the field which hasn't allowed him to string the games together. Since he's balanced himself up, he has been giving back to the Club for having stood by him. De Goey added six majors last week which was the straw that inevitably broke the Saints back. The Pies will welcome back Levi Greenwood for tagging purposes as well as Ben Reid and Josh Daicos. The Doggies were found out trying to play dry weather football last week in torrential rains, over in Adelaide. The Dogs were fancied last week to head to Adelaide and pinch that game with the handicap shortening all week for them. The Dogs were severely found out but its been Bontempelli and Brownlow smokey, Jack Macrae who have been keeping the fire lit for the Dogs. Macrae himself had 36 touches and 13 tackles last week and would need to give that sort of effort again to be competitive against the Pies.

Wells is arguably in the Pies top five or six players and Buckley opting to 'rest' him this week shows his confidence in his outfit for this contest. I think the Pies have the Doggies covered in all areas of the ground and this has the potential to be a blow out pending how the Dogs front up after the heavy slog in Adelaide last week. Take the Pies to win and cover to start the weekend off right.

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood -16.52.5u at 1.9+2.25

Carlton v Geelong

Two teams that had extremely poor week's last week will look to straighten up before we go into the mid-season bye periods. The Blues were thumped by the Demons in Melbourne on Sunday afternoon while the Cats simply did not come to play against the Bombers last Saturday afternoon.

Weren't we given a gift last week if you followed the Geelong game to go under the total points against Essendon. Fortunately, I have the same angle again here with the Geelong Cats, who will suit up $1.1 favourites in this matchup, to do what I thought they'd do last week against Essendon. There was absolutely no excuses for what Geelong allowed to happen to them last week and the end result against the Bombers says more about the Cats and where they are at than what it does about Essendon. Geelong boast one of the most potent midfields in the competition but are now the worst performing clearance team which can be directly linked back to not having a ruck presence in the center circle or around the ground. This Cats' midfield is being starved of the ball and it appears they will probably have their hands full chasing first tap preferance from Blues ruckman Matthew Kruezer. Zach Smith will most likely be given the task of manning Kruezer for the afternoon which could have a real indicator on where his career goes after this year, especially with the Cats. Gary Ablett will return to the Cattery for the first time since returning to Geelong and he is notorious for turning on a show when he gets out in front of the Geelong faithful. The Blues copped their worst loss in three years last week after they failed to come out after half time last week against the Demons. Carlton kicked two goals for the second half to the Demon's 15 which really shows where they are at. Brendan Bolton had the players effort's questioned during his presser' and was forced to say that the Blues were simply out-bodied by a much bigger and stronger team. It doesn't get any better for the Blues as it was announced earlier this week that Blues skipper, Marc Murphy, would miss some time through another sustained injury.

Just like I thought last week, The Blues too, simply can't kick a score and with the Geelong backline tightening up every week, especially after such a poor effort against the Bombers last week, a high Blues score is quite unlikely down at the Cattery. I can see the Cats really sticking it up the Blues and the handicap seems fair so take the under as the Cats dominate both sides of the ball. Where have we heard this before?

OTP Recommendation

Total Match Points Under 171.52.5u at 1.9+2.25

Melbourne v Adelaide

The Demons will look to keep their hot month going when they tackle the Crows in Alice Springs on Sunday afternoon. The Demons handed the Blues their biggest loss in three years when thumping them by 109 points last week while the Crows had themselves a nine day break since playing the Dogs in torrential rains last Friday night back at Adelaide oval.

Its been a glorious month for the Demons who have been able to boost their percentage, get a couple of injured players back into the team all the whilst notching up wins. The Demons bullied the biggest win of the season so far against the Blues, to the tune of 109 points. It was a training session for the Demons as they all had their share of getting a soft touch. The Crows will go from one weather extremity to another having played in torrential rains last week to head to the balmy Alice Springs. The Crows have shown glimpses of what they could do this year and other times have really let themselves down. The Crows went to Sydney and were able to roll the Swans in their home town just a couple weeks ago and since then have only played one quarter of bad footy, which inevitably cost them the game against Port in the showdown. This has been the only blemish on the Crows in the past month, and though they have played same of the same teams as the Demons, the Crows have been able to do it while resting their own players. Matt Crouch looks set to return for the Crows who will be bolster the Crows midfield immensely.

The price for the Demons is a little overreaction for their last month's worth of wins. At round five of the season, the Demons were just 2-3 and since then have rattled off wins against the Bombers, Saints, Suns and Blues, all of which will be no where near finals action this year. The Crows will most likely be finishing top four and in saying that, the Crows will be winning this game up in the territory as the step up in competition will be too much for the Demons this weekend. 

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide To Win3.0u at 2.08-3

    Grand Final -10 10 -100%
    Finals Week Three -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Two +7.53 7.5 100%
    Finals Week One +8.45 13 65%
    Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35%
    Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31%
    Round Twenty +3.76 10 38%
    Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55%
    Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10%
    Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34%
    Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100%
    Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81%
    Round Thirteen -7 7 -100%
    Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13%
    Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39%
    Round Ten +1.5 8 19%
    Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92%
    Round Eight +3.5 8 44%
    Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32%
    Round Six +1.15 5.5 21%
    Round Five +5.32 9 59%
    Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32%
    Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6%
    Round Two -1.5 6 -25%
    Round One +2.56 6 43%
    Futures -6 6 -100%
    Total -27.52 231.5 -12%

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