AFL ROUND 5
Brisbane v Gold Coast
Our first prospect for round five will be the Q' clash where both teams are front up after poor, poor efforts in round four. The Brisbane Lions were embarrassed by the reigning premiers last week while the Suns also didn't give a yelp against West Coast. Combined losing margin was 193 pts last week for these two teams, not ideal..
To find our edge here, we're going to put a pen through last week's efforts for both teams and assess on the week before. Brisbane went to Adelaide Oval a fortnight ago and were able to hang around a Port team that is being touted as a deep finals contender. They have yet to get both their premium midfielders on the park at the same time but continue to compete, and compete well. The covered a near 10 goal line that looks to be good enough form for a game like this.
The Suns return from West Australia after having themselves a two week stint there over round three and four. Two losses from two attempts at the new Optus stadium and they are starting to show the league exactly where they are at. Against West Coast, the Suns were bullied all over the park and were comprehensively beaten in uncontested possessions, a stat they have focused more since their new turnover of personal in the midfield in the offseason. The Suns are showing that they're quite limited at the moment and their best, so far this season, doesn't appear to be as good as the best the Lions have put up.
As been the trend throughout the season so far, if you have a bad week and the media lashes you for it, some sort of response is found. We're expecting Fagan and Hodgey, who is already having his motives questioned since making the jump to Brisbane, to respond and respond well here. Brisbane are unfortunate to not have a W in their column but will get it this weekend.
Brisbane -5.51.5u at 1.96-1.5
Melbourne v Richmond
The Tigers at the 'G is quickly becoming a big mountain in its own right, and thats what the Demons will contend with here as they look to bounce back from their loss against the Hawks last week. The Tigers, the in-form team of the comp right now, just quietly go about their business and will build on their near-100 point win from last week.
The test was there, the test was failed. Melbourne had a real opportunity to prove they were more than just a mid-rift team last week when they met the Hawks. Melbourne was touted preseason as a serious finals contender but since the season has started, have shown very little to give their fans more belief. In the past three weeks, the Demons allowed the Lions to level up the scores late in the fourth quarter, after trailing by 45 points, they've let the Kangaroos get out to a five goal lead middle stages of the game, in which both teams aren't expected to do all that much this year. Then last week, go down by 10 goals and just have no fight against a team that was cruelled with injuries throughout. The Tigers are quite the opposite, and since starting slowly against the Blues back in the season opener, haven't strung two bad quarters together since.
This is the bet of the round and we will be betting accordingly. Simply put, the Demons candle has gone out and if it hasn't already, then the Tigers will definitely make sure of it. Expect the reigning premiers to win and win well on the eve of a public holiday, in front of a very full house.
Richmond -14.55u at 1.95+4.75
Collingwood v Essendon
The 2018 edition of the Anzac Day clash shapes up to be one of the more interesting meetings these two have had in the last couple of years. The Pies return from a rare upsetting win last week against the Crows in Adelaide while the Bombers also knocked off South Australian team, Port Adelaide.
We saw the Bombers knock of Port last week which, after last night's loss to the Cats, isn't shaping up to be that all impressive of a win. The Bombers are a one dimensional team that just looks to move the ball at break neck speeds through the middle corridors of Etihad Stadium. It's their strength and the only way they know how to play. Unfortunately, this game will be at the 'G. Collingwood seem to have unearthed a couple of young guns and they're slipping into the team nicely. At the beginning of the year, the Pies were the lay team of the competition. They were riddled with injuries and just couldn't get anyone on the park. Steele Sidebottom has played out of his skin in the last month and is really stepping up to the role. The pies are incrementally beginning to get players back and they're quickly becoming a team to take notice of. Taylor Adams could potentially make his return this week, and at the time of writing was questionable. If he does return then this selection becomes a lock.
Having the luxury of being able to see some games earlier in this round before this one took place really helps our hand here. Crows were able to respond to their Collingwood loss last week and lift a level which shows there is more upside for the Pies if they continue to go on with it. Flipside, Port failed again this week and even worse was that it was back in Adelaide for them. Port are significantly weaker travelling which makes the Bombers win last week not fantastic. Pies are the form team at the moment, behind the reigning premiers, and we're expecting them to flip the script on last years Anzac clash and knock the Bombers off.
Collingwood To Win2.5 at 1.83+2.07
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Finals Week One +8.45 13 65% Round Twenty-Two -4.7 13.25 -35% Round Twenty-One -4 13 -31% Round Twenty +3.76 10 38% Round Nineteen -9.5 9.5 -100% Round Eighteen -7.75 14 -55% Round Seventeen +0.68 7 10% Round Sixteen -4.11 12 -34% Round Fifteen -8.5 8.5 -100% Round Fourteen +6.5 8 81% Round Thirteen -7 7 -100% Round Twelve -0.72 5.5 -13% Round Eleven -2.93 7.5 -39% Round Ten +1.5 8 19% Round Nine +7.84 8.5 92% Round Eight +3.5 8 44% Round Seven +2.35 7.25 32% Round Six +1.15 5.5 21% Round Five +5.32 9 59% Round Four -2.1 6.5 -32% Round Three -0.35 5.5 -6% Round Two -1.5 6 -25% Round One +2.56 6 43% Total -9.55 198.5 -5%