With just over a week to go before Round 1 of the AFL season kicks off for 2018, it be best if we take a look at a few season bets for the upcoming season and see if we can sneak some value. First season bet we'll take a look at is the season wins over/under market.
Season Wins Under/Over - Carlton Over 6.5 Wins
As Bolton has done in his previous two years, the turnover for the Blues has been quite high again during this past off season. Most notably Bryce Gibbs and his successful transfer from Ikon Park to Adelaide on his second attempt at trying to do so. Gibbs was an integral part of the Blues core midfield unit, pairing up with Marc Murphy to lead the next generation of youngsters the team is filled with. This big loss, however, will be nullified with another superstar in Patrick Cripps returning from his season-ending broken leg last year. Cripps has shown glimpses of being a superstar in the making and could very well surpass the void that Gibbs has left. Other notable player changes to the Blues' list include three handy midfielder draftees in Paddy Dow, Ex-GWS Giant Matt Kennedy and Ex-Cat Darcy Lang. All three have shown exciting midfield games through the JLT series and will all do their bit when swung through there. With the natural development of 2nd and 3rd year players in Curnow, Weitering, Marchbank, Jones, Plowman, Fisher and Petreski-Seton, the Blues are in very much poised to continue their growth.
The draw for the Blues sets up nicely for the first couple of months and i'll be sending them out as favourites four ( R2 V Gold Coast, R3 V Collingwood, R4 V North Melbourne, R6 V Bulldogs ) out of the first 8 rounds. There shouldn't be any reason why after round 8 they have notched 4-5 wins. Depending on how healthy they stay throughout the season, they could very much wrap this bet up by R17 - R20. The Blues won six games in 2017 and lost another eight games by four goals or less. With their inclusions made during the offseason, not only will the Blues hit their last years win tally of six, but should very well go on with their natural progression Brendon Bolton is building at Carlton
Carlton Over 6.5 Wins4 at 1.87?
Top Victorian Team - Geelong
One of the biggest advantages throughout the home and away season is playing on your home deck, in front of your own supporters. The Geelong Cats will play nine of a possible 22 rounds this year at the newly renamed GMHBA stadium (Kardinia Park) and will be favourites for all of them. They will play another seven games in Melbourne (one hour drive) and be favourites for six of those seven matchups. This bodes well the Cats again for 2018 as they have proven to be exceptionally tough to beat at home. Last year the Cats finished on 15 wins for the season and were tied top with Adelaide and Richmond, who squared off for the premiership. Even with Dangerfield's hamstring setback, (Cats have been exposed without him) they should still be too much for Melbourne and Hawthorn at the 'G before getting Dangerfield back in R3, at the latest.
Geelong's favourite son in Gary Ablett has returned to the blue and white hoops to finish out his career. It is yet to be seen what role Ablett will play back in the Geelong squad but a daunting task all the same trying to match up the current midfield of Dangerfield, Selwood and Duncan. The other contending team in this market, The Tigers, will have a target squarely pointed at them after their fairy tale 2017 premiership. The rest of the competition will get up for their encounter's with the Tigers which adds pressure in taking the Tigers as the top Victorian team. Its because of this, and the recent addition of Ablett to the Geelong Cats list that the Geelong Cats will be the top Victorian team of 2018.
Geelong Top Victorian Team2 at 3.75?