AFL ROUND 21
GEELONG v RICHMOND
Geelong have paid the ultimate price for there loss at home to Sydney last week. Not only have they put there top four aspirations in jeopardy but they managed to lose Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan to needless suspensions and even worse they have lost inspirational skipper Joel Selwood for up to a month with injury.
This week the Cats welcome Richmond down to the Cattery and the Tigers outfit of 2017 is not one you want to play when you are missing key players. The Tigers have been superb this year at grinding out wins and with the best defender in the game in Alex Range and the underrated David Astbury and Jack Grimes helping him down back teams are finding it very hard to score against Richmond.
The Cats get of course Patrick Dangerfield back and his battle with Dusty Martin should be worth the price of admittance alone. The Cats have also rushed back Menzel and Motlop who will bolster the Cats but Motlop has been a big disappointment this year and will need to lift.
The Cats as always will be tough at home but I fear they are missing too much quality here and the opposition are playing full of confidence and I think they will grind out another tough win.
Take the Tigers to win at the margin 1-39.
Richmond 1-393 at 2.37-3
BRISBANE v GOLD COAST
Brisbane Lions have a great chance to notch up win number five for season 2017 when they do battle with the locals down the road in the besieged Gold Coast Suns.
Right now these two Queensland sides are tracking in opposite directions. The Lions after many a year down the bottom of the ladder are starting to make in roads. They have a handful of very promising kids coming through who will all be very good players in the years to come. The two Dayne's - Zorko and Beams are having outstanding years and Rockliff is as solid as ever. More importantly they have a coach who has the players playing for him and engaged. The Suns sacked coach Rodney Eade this week for the simple fact they couldn't win games but even more worrying the players looked disinterested and not willing to do the hard work that should be a given.
The Suns should respond this week - most teams do when they have a change of coach. Unfortunately for new coach Dean Solomon he will be without his two best players in Gary Ablett and Tom Lynch. Throw in the fact the Suns are travelling back from Perth and the dramas of this week and you have to think they are still ripe for the Lions here.
Simply when analysing this game and let's not forget the Lions have already beat the Suns in Round 1 - you have to take into account that the Lions are up and about and they nearly beat last years Premiers Western Bulldogs at home last week. The Suns are simply a mess on and off the field and even a change of coach won't be able to change there fortunes this quickly.
Take the Lions at home at minus -12.5
WEST COAST v CARLTON
The West Coast Eagles are back at home this week when they host Carlton on Saturday night. The Eagles simply need to win to keep any remote chance they have of making the top 8. Simply they are not good enough to play finals and you almost get the impression Adam Simpson knows this and we can expect more than Matt Priddis to be gone by seasons end.
All that said you would expect the Eagles to do what they do best and win at home. They have enough quality to get over a Carlton side that is brave and well set up but has started to look tired as its young list gets the end of a long season. Regardless the Blues will make this a grind for the Eagles and with heavy rain predicted over in the West for the entire weekend you can see this being a dour affair.
We will take the Eagles to win but expect the weather and a defensive Carlton to make then earn it.
Take the Eagles at the margin of 1-39.
West Coast 1-393 at 2.46+4.38
ESSENDON v ADELAIDE
Essendon and Adelaide face off on Saturday night (Etihad) in what has all the makings of a very entertaining high scoring affair.
The Crows were awesome last week in the Showdown and in slippery conditions they made light work of rivals Port Adelaide. The Crows have undoubtedly the competitors most lethal forward line. This Crows have averaged 112 points per game this year to make them the highest scoring team. The Bombers who always play well at Etihad have scored the third most points in the comp this year. They to posses a dangerous forward line with Joe Daniher - Cale Hooker - James Steward and Anthony McDonald Tipungwuti.
All this adds up to what should be a high scoring game under the roof of Etihad. Both these sides are attack at all costs and I can't see it being any different this week.
Take over 200.5 points.
PORT ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD
Port Adelaide will be desperate to get back on track this week when they host Collingwood. The Power were embarrassed last week in the showdown. They welcome back there most important player in Chad Wingard this week and they have really missed him in the last fortnight.
The Powers opponents Collingwood have had a mini resurgence in the past month with some good wins and a draw against Adelaide. Sadly for Magpie supporters this form has come to late ands when the pressure is off. At the end of the day the position you finish on the ladder is a true reflection of your season and Collingwood simply haven't been good enough this year. They have lost Daniel Wells for this week and they have amazing record with him in the side this year so thats not a good start. With no Wells and Pendlebury the Pies lose plenty of polish through the middle. They have also lost Brodie Grundy due to suspension and that will give Paddy Ryder a massive leg up in the ruck.
The Power have done one thing very well this year and that is beat up on sides below them this year. I think they will rebound this week but I'm counting on Collingwood being competitive as they have been all year. Take the Power at the margin 1-39.
Port Adelaide 1-392 at 2.20+2.4
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final +9 11 82% Finals Week Three -4.2 12 -35% Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4% Finals Week One +7.18 11 65% Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43% Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59% Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66% Round Twenty -8 17 -47% Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71% Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20% Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62% Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27% Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1% Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17% Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39% Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45% Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23% Round Ten -5.26 10 -53% Round Nine +4 11 36% Round Eight +10.01 9 111% Round Seven -10.26 17 -60% Round Six -2.4 14 -17% Round Five -12.3 18 -68% Round Four -5.21 11 -47% Round Three -1.16 10 -12% Round Two -11 11 -100% Round One -0.27 6 -5% Total -29.71 345 -9%