AFL ROUND 13
WEST COAST v GEELONG
Tonight we head to Perth to start Round 13 with Geelong taking on hosts West Coast. The Eagles are in desperate need of a win having dropped there past three games. The Cats on the other hand have had the luxury of playing three games in a row back at home, winning all three against good opponents in Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Adelaide.
Both sides have a made dilemma going into this game with Josh Kennedy missing through injury for the Eagles while Geelong will be without their main target Tom Hawkins due to suspension. The fact that the Eagles are at home and have Jack Darling - Mark Le Cras and possibly Jeremy McGovern up forward probably tilts the game in there favour. Geelong will need Harry Taylor - Rhys Stanley and Daniel Menzel to kick there share of goals.
West Coast as always have been super strong in Perth losing just one game at home this year. That was to GWS a few weeks back in a game they led for the majority of the day. The Eagles home form can never be ignored regardless of their recent poor form which is mainly on the road. You can expect an intimidating crowd and ferocious home side and the Cats need to be switched on from the start after having a month back at home.
I am surprised that West Coast are currently $2.20- $2.30 in the betting and for me that represents value for a side that rarely loses at home and even though they may be missing Kennedy the Cats missing Hawkins may well be a bigger blow.
GOLD COAST v CARLTON
Saturday Night footy this week takes us to the Gold Coast where the home side takes on the rejuvenated Carlton. Both sides had wins last week with the Suns having an away win over Hawthorn while the Blues claimed a huge scalp in a tight win over GWS.
The Suns have regained a bit of form back at home defeating West Coast and Geelong in the last two games at the ground. They have named an unchanged line up from last week which is a rare thing for the Suns and that should hold them in good stead. The Blues are proving to be a very hard side to play against and Brendan Bolton has done a fabulous job at the helm. The Blues structure up well and get numbers behind the ball. With a forward line that is still young and a work in progress Bolton is smart enough to realise that he can't allow the Blues to get into a shoot out.
These sides played at Etihad in round 4 where the Suns won by 26 points on the back of Tom Lynch kicking 7 goals. He will again pose a problem for the Blues who are missing Sam Rowe and now Alex Silvagni and it may well come down to Liam Jones who has found a new lease of life down back. If the Blues can restrict Lynch to under 4 goals they are a big chance on there current form.
I am leaning to the home side to continue their recent good form but i don't expect the Blues to be blown away. Take the Suns at the margin of 1-39.
Gold Coast Margin 1-392 at 2.20-2
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20% Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62% Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27% Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1% Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17% Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39% Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45% Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23% Round Ten -5.26 10 -53% Round Nine +4 11 36% Round Eight +10.01 9 111% Round Seven -10.26 17 -60% Round Six -2.4 14 -17% Round Five -12.3 18 -68% Round Four -5.21 11 -47% Round Three -1.16 10 -12% Round Two -11 11 -100% Round One -0.27 6 -5% Total -33.84 219 -15%