Round Eleven AFL Picks

AFL ROUND 11

GEELONG v ADELAIDE

Geelong host their third straight game at home when they play Adelaide this Friday night. The Cats have had hard fought wins over the Bulldogs and Port in the previous weeks and that will hold them in good stead for the arrival of the classy Crows who have had some easy kills in the past fortnight over the Lions and Fremantle. The Crows needed those wins to get back on track after two poor losses to North and Melbourne. Sometimes you need an easy kill to get the playing group back on track and believing in themselves and the system again.

Their is little doubt that Adelaide possess the most dangerous forward line in the competition with Walker, Betts, Jenkins, Lynch and Cameron. The only one missing is McGovern. They have kicked scores of 140 and 143 the last two games. The Cats defence will need to be at their best to restrict the Crows from kicking a winning score. Geelong did the double over Adelaide last year and will feel confident they have the game plan to do the job.

I can see another tight affair at the Cattery and slightly lean towards Adelaide on the back of their potent forward line. Although the Cats won last week they were hardly convincing and they face a side who will punish them for any errors.

Take the away side at the margin 1-39.

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide Margin 1-393 at 2.40Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

GWS v ESSENDON

GWS host Essendon back at their home ground in Sydney this Saturday on the back of probably the best win in the clubs history. They beat the Eagles in Perth with only 25 players on their list to pick from. That's a staggering amount of players unavailable and also very daunting for the rest of the competition when they start to return.

They should regain Tom Scully and Rory Lobb for this week. The line for this game currently stands at the Giants minus 30.5. That seems a touch high for me on the basis that they have had some tough wins in the past month and coming back from Perth with a six day break they could be a little flat.

The Bombers are a touch unpredictable this year throwing up good wins with poor losses. They have travelled outside of Melbourne three times this year for a hard fought win over Brisbane and then they were thrashed by the Crows in Adelaide and Fremantle ran over them in Perth a few weeks back.

The Bombers for me look a bit fragile on the road and I think the Giants will have enough class around the ground to win out on the day but I can't see them having the energy to win by a huge margin.

We will take the Giants at the Margin of 1-39 which they have managed to win by in their past three games.

OTP Recommendation

GWS Margin 1-393 at 2.30Bookie Image 2+3.9

otp odds

FREMANTLE v COLLINGWOOD

The only game this Sunday will be played in Perth when Fremantle host Collingwood. The Dockers were back to being awful last week when the Crows handed them a 100 point flogging. The Dockers looked disinterested from the opening bounce and as a result got what they deserved. Ross Lyon wouldn't have liked what he saw and you can expect a reaction on the field this week. Ross the boss is very good at getting his sides to rebound after a bad loss. Remember they were destroyed by Geelong and Port in the opening rounds of the season and then beat the Premiers the Western Bulldogs in Round 3.

In fact the Dockers have only lost two more games since that opening two week disaster. They have been solid at home as usual losing only to neighbours West Coast and Geelong in round 1. They have beaten the Dogs - North - Essendon and Carlton. Collingwood for me falls into the category of side that Freo have beaten at home this year.

The Pies have won two on the trot without being convincing in wins over Hawthorn and Brisbane. They have unfortunately lost Alex Fasolo for this clash and Darcy Moore will have more pressure on him up forward. Moore also went off the ground last week with a shin injury and although he came back on you wonder if he is 100% for this week. That all means a dysfunctional Pies forward line looks even more stretched and Jamie Elliott will be relied on to kick a bag.

I think Freo will be desperate to rebound from last weeks embarrassing performance and back at home where they structure up so much better they should be to good for a Collingwood side who is lacking in forward targets which are so important on the long dimensions of Subiaco.

OTP Recommendation

Fremantle to Win3 at 1.89Bookie Image 3-3

otp odds

  • WEEKRESULTSSTAKESROI
    Finals Week Three -4.2 12 -35%
    Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4%
    Finals Week One +7.18 11 65%
    Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43%
    Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59%
    Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66%
    Round Twenty -8 17 -47%
    Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71%
    Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20%
    Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62%
    Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27%
    Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1%
    Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17%
    Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39%
    Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45%
    Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23%
    Round Ten -5.26 10 -53%
    Round Nine +4 11 36%
    Round Eight +10.01 9 111%
    Round Seven -10.26 17 -60%
    Round Six -2.4 14 -17%
    Round Five -12.3 18 -68%
    Round Four -5.21 11 -47%
    Round Three -1.16 10 -12%
    Round Two -11 11 -100%
    Round One -0.27 6 -5%
    Total -38.71 334 -12%

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