AFL ROUND 10
GEELONG v PORT ADELAIDE
Thursday night football returns for the next five weeks and to kick it off we have an enticing game between Geelong and Port Adelaide at Skilled Stadium. The Cats played their first game at home last week in a entertaining affair ,getting over the top of the Premiers Western Bulldogs. The highlight of the Cats win aside from the usual Dangerfield / Selwood show was the 145 tackles the home side applied. The Cats will be without Nakia Cockatoo and experienced full back Tom Longergan.
Port Adelaide are of course coming off an extended break after belting the Suns in China. The Power have been the big improvers this season but it's worth noting they have struggled to beat the top sides this year. Their three losses have been to Adelaide - GWS and West Coast. The only top 8 side the Power have beaten this year was Fremantle in round 2 when the Dockers were awful.
Port will be without Chad Wingard who is a massive out. I'm not convinced Robbie Gray is anymore than 70% fit and he looks very restricted with a groin injury.
I am expecting a tough close game here and with a 50% chance of rain i can't see this being a blow out. The Cats at home are always formidable and having won last 11 of their last 12 encounters against Port i am going with the home side at the margin of 1-39.
SYDNEY v HAWTHORN
Sydney host Hawthorn in the Harbour city on Friday night. This game in the past few years has always been one to pencil in as a cracking affair. This year not so much. Both sides have come right back to the pack. The Swans started the season 0-6 but have won three on the trot to get themselves back in the pecking order for a final eight spot. The Hawks have also won three games for the year but have also copped some almighty hidings and last week they gave up a seven goal lead against Collingwood.
Sydney are almost back to full strength after starting the season with a number of injuries. Jarrod McVeigh and Kieran Jack two of their leaders are missing through injury but i'm not sure they will be that badly missed as the Swans have promoted a number of players who look good such as Nic Newman.
Hawthorn still have a stack of injuries and have thrown a few more new faces into side this week. I can't help but feel the Swans are back playing the footy we all knew they were capable off and they will see a chance to get stuck into a Hawthorn side that is down on quality and experience.
The line for this game has been going up all week. The 40+ margin might be a bit more value.
ADELAIDE v FREMANTLE
Adelaide did the right thing by us last week making sure the overs saluted. This week back at home against Fremantle we are going to go against the trend of Adelaide high scoring games and take the game total under 182.5.
Fremantle have always been a low scoring team under Ross Lyon and this year is no different. We can expect the Dockers to head to city of churches and play an ultra defensive game to give themselves a chance of an upset. Fremantle have struggled to kick big scores themselves and their is no way Ross the Boss will want to engage in a shoot out.
Another reason to be on the unders game total is the expected rain. While it's always hard to predict what the weather will do its worth noting the total for this game was higher but has come down a few points with the current forecast.
Take under 182.5 and hope for some rain and the Dockers to put plenty of players behind the ball and make this a scrap.
WEST COAST v GWS
Although we are five days away from the West Coast - GWS clash it is worth backing the Eagles now before the value is gone.
Most of the 126.96.36.199 West Coast has gone therefore the -6.5 /7.5 is the value now. I suspect this line will be a lot higher by game day.
The Eagles as usual were woeful in Melbourne. As usual you would expect back at home where they rarely lose they will respond after copping their fair share of criticism. Their opponents GWS have done the right thing by us in the last two weeks by sneaking home after giving the Pies and Tigers big first qtr starts. It shows good character and fight for such a young side to win those games but it also would be using up a lot of petrol tickets.
The major dilemma for the Giants is their on going injury crisis. Every week they lose a couple players. This week it's Rory Lobb and Stevie Johnson who will miss the trip to Perth. By my calculations the Giants will have up ten first team regulars unavailable for this fixture. That's hardly ideal when playing the Eagles in Perth.
West Coast should do what they do best and win comfortably at home against a depleted GWS outfit.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final +9 11 82% Finals Week Three -4.2 12 -35% Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4% Finals Week One +7.18 11 65% Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43% Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59% Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66% Round Twenty -8 17 -47% Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71% Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20% Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62% Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27% Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1% Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17% Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39% Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45% Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23% Round Ten -5.26 10 -53% Round Nine +4 11 36% Round Eight +10.01 9 111% Round Seven -10.26 17 -60% Round Six -2.4 14 -17% Round Five -12.3 18 -68% Round Four -5.21 11 -47% Round Three -1.16 10 -12% Round Two -11 11 -100% Round One -0.27 6 -5% Total -29.71 345 -9%