AFL ROUND 5
SYDNEY v GWS
The Sydney Derby should be a cracking fixture on Saturday night at the SCG. Even though the home side is 0-4 they have had moments in every game. The Swans get some badly needed experience and class back into the side this week with Tippett, Heeney and Rohan all returning. GWS have Stevie Johnson back in from injury.
The Swans and Giants have played at the SCG four times with the home side taking the points every time. The smaller ground suits them and allows the Swans to strangle the powerful GWS midfield. I also think Franklin, Reid and Tippett will stretch a GWS back line which looks a bit short on quality key defenders outside of Phil Davis.
The Swans are returning from Perth but have the benefit of a nine day break between fixtures. The Swans season is fast slipping away and i expect they will be extra pumped for the visit of their neighbours. Their will be no better way for Sydney to get their season ignited then with a win over GWS.
Sydney to Win2 at 2.75-2
ST KILDA v GEELONG
St Kilda host Geelong at Etihad this Sunday. It promises to be a high quality affair with the Cats undefeated and the Saints with back to back wins at Etihad now 2-2 for the season.
St Kilda dominated Collingwood last week after half time and probably should have won by more. The Cats of course had a big win over the ever fading Hawks. These two sides have played a couple ripping games at Etihad in the last couple seasons with the Saints winning by 3 points last year and in 2015 they played out a draw.
The Saints will take a lot of confidence into this game with their good form against the Cats in previous seasons and they play Etihad so well and their best midfielder Jack Steven is named to return this week.
I'm not entirely sold on the Cats. They have beaten any team of substance just yet with their best win being over Melbourne in a game where the Dees dominated for 3 quarters but kicked themselves out of it (13-19) and Geelong kicked (20-6).
I'm happy to take the Saints at the line and it's also worth backing them to win the first quarter. The Saints have won the first qtr in three of their four games and they might catch the Cats sleeping coming off a six day break.
RICHMOND v MELBOURNE
Richmond and Melbourne meet in their now annual ANZAC day eve clash. This should be a high quality match on Monday night with the Tigers 4-0 and Melbourne 2-2. The Demons are a much better side than 2-2 suggests but have been let down by needless suspensions and injury to big Maxy Gawn.
Richmond have been a revelation this season playing a new more exciting brand of footy. They move the ball quickly and run hard from defence. Their younger players have stood up for them so far and Daniel Rioli has been brilliant. But without doubt the reason for their fantastic start to the season has been Dusty Martin. Anyone who uses the ball and well as Martin does is going to hurt you when they get 30+ touches. Hardwick has also used him for stints up forward which has been netting the Tigers a couple extra goals a week.
That said their is plenty of talk in Melbourne town this week that Martin may not play or if he lines up that he will be restricted by a groin injury. At time of writing this the preview the teams haven't been announced but i think it's worth taking Melbourne now to win. If Martin doesn't play the Dees will be favourite and if he does play you wonder if he will be as effective. He was quite last week which suggests perhaps he was carrying an injury.
The Demons of course will get Jesse Hogan back and he will need to repay the club after that silly 2 week suspension. I think the Demons will be stung after last weeks poor loss to Fremantle. The Demons have beaten the Tigers in their last 3 meetings and i think they can do it again.
ESSENDON v COLLINGWOOD
The ANZAC day clash looks very hard to decipher. The Pies have been competitive in every match but only have one win for the season.
ssendon started in a blaze of glory winning their opening games against Hawthorn and Brisbane before losing in wet conditions to Carlton and then last week they copped a thumping to Adelaide.
The current prices have Pies into 1.57 -1.60 from opening price 1.70. Personally i can't see much value in 1.57 or Pies -10.5.
If your looking for some value the total for this game has dropped all the way down to as low as 155 with the inclement weather in Melbourne. The worst of the weather seems to have dispersed and BOM is predicting just light showers from lunch. The total seems to be quickly on the way back up as a result.
It's worth taking anywhere from 157.5 -to 165.5 as it should start a lot higher.
If your looking for bet on the ANZAC day medal. Brodie Grundy has been in superb form this year for the Pies and is worth something at $17.00
Over 165.5 points3 at 1.90+2.7
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4% Finals Week One +7.18 11 65% Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43% Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59% Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66% Round Twenty -8 17 -47% Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71% Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20% Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62% Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27% Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1% Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17% Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39% Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45% Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23% Round Ten -5.26 10 -53% Round Nine +4 11 36% Round Eight +10.01 9 111% Round Seven -10.26 17 -60% Round Six -2.4 14 -17% Round Five -12.3 18 -68% Round Four -5.21 11 -47% Round Three -1.16 10 -12% Round Two -11 11 -100% Round One -0.27 6 -5% Total -34.51 322 -11%