AFL: Blues the value at home



GWS take on Port Adelaide this week in Canberra. Last year these two sides met at the same venue and the Giants handed Port an 86 point hiding.

The Power seem to be travelling a lot better this time and having started the season with two good wins, last week saw them go down in a tough contest to home town rivals Adelaide. Out of that game Port have lost one of their key components in Paddy Ryder who had been providing great service from the ruck. Back up ruckman Matthew Lobbe is out injured so it looks like Jackson Trengove will be forced into the middle. That deprives Port of one of their main defenders and that's on the back of them already missing their number one defender in Jack Hombsch who is out injured. It's not ideal to be missing key defenders when your playing a side that has Cameron, Patton and Lobb up forward.

The showdown normally takes it toll on the South Australian sides the following week and I have a feeling Port will once again struggle to contain GWS on the big wide open spaces of Manuka. Bet up to -22.5.

OTP Recommendation

GWS -18.53 at 1.93Bookie Image 4+2.79


Carlton enter Round 4 at home playing Gold Coast at Etihad. Both sides broke the duck last week with a much needed win. The Blues have been impressive in the last fortnight beating the Bombers and leading Melbourne at 3/4 time before losing by 4 goals. The Suns had a huge win last week against the once mighty Hawks. Gold Coast strikes me as a team who likes the game on their own terms - if things start poorly for them they seem to drop heads very quickly. They have a very poor record away from home and the two times these sides have met previously at this ground Carlton has been a comfortable winner.

I have to be with the home side here. I was surprised to see the opening prices in this fixture and had Carlton as slight faves.

I'm tipping Carlton with their solid defence and high work rate to beat an inconsistent and unreliable Gold Coast.

OTP Recommendation

Carlton to Win4 at 2.22Bookie Image 1-4

otp odds


The undefeated and highly impressive Adelaide Crows takes on Essendon this Saturday night in what should be a quality match. The Crows will benefit from playing at home for the second week in a row while the Bombers come off a 6 day break and heavy conditions in the loss to Carlton.

With that said I think Essendon will aim up here and make real contest of this game. The Crows are entitled to be a little flat here after the Showdown and previous to that they had stirling wins against GWS and Hawthorn. The Crows have lost some major fire power up forward with Jenkins and McGovern missing through injury. That allows the Bombers to play Hurley on Tex Walker.

Going to go with the value here and play the Crows to win by the margin 1-39.

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide 1-392 at 2.45Bookie Image 2-2

otp odds


Collingwood and St Kilda should provide a great Easter Sunday contest at Etihad. The Pies held on for a much deserved and needed win last week against the Swans in Sydney. The Saints had a 5 goal win against Brisbane last Sunday in a game that never reached great heights and provided more questions than answers for St Kilda fans. It's fair to say without their champion Nick Riewoldt (28 disposals and 3 goals) the Saints would have struggled to win last week. They enter this game without their best midfielder in Jack Steven.

The Pies have one major strength and it's their star studded midfield with the likes of Pendlebury - Treloar - Adams - Sidebottom and the ever improving big man Brodie Grundy. The Saints look light on in the middle and for this reason alone I am siding with Collingwood here. Certainly the inclusion of Jamie Elliott doesn't hurt the Pies chances either. I am also banking on the Pies entering this game full of confidence after last weeks win.

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood to Win2 at 1.80Bookie Image 3-2

otp odds

    Grand Final +9 11 82%
    Finals Week Three -4.2 12 -35%
    Finals Week Two +0.42 11 4%
    Finals Week One +7.18 11 65%
    Round Twenty-Three -9.09 21 -43%
    Round Twenty-Two +9.47 16 59%
    Round Twenty-One +8.55 13 66%
    Round Twenty -8 17 -47%
    Round Nineteen -9.2 13 -71%
    Round Eighteen +3.01 15 20%
    Round Seventeen +9.88 16 62%
    Round Sixteen -4.05 15 -27%
    Round Fifteen +0.12 13 1%
    Round Fourteen -2.48 15 -17%
    Round Thirteen +1.93 5 39%
    Round Twelve -6.3 14 -45%
    Round Eleven -2.1 9 -23%
    Round Ten -5.26 10 -53%
    Round Nine +4 11 36%
    Round Eight +10.01 9 111%
    Round Seven -10.26 17 -60%
    Round Six -2.4 14 -17%
    Round Five -12.3 18 -68%
    Round Four -5.21 11 -47%
    Round Three -1.16 10 -12%
    Round Two -11 11 -100%
    Round One -0.27 6 -5%
    Total -29.71 345 -9%

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