AFL: SF value hard to find


Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Very hard to fault the Hawks last week against Geelong. Just a kick away from another Prelim but nevertheless, a match they should have won. It was a brutal encounter though – how will the ageing bodies hold up? They do get some pace back in with Hartung and Sicily.

And what a performance from the Bulldogs smashing up West Coast in Perth. It will take a massive effort to stay at that level up against the three-time champs on the MCG. The Dogs all but beat Hawthorn the last time they met at Etihad Stadium. They dominated all over the ground before letting go of a 19-point lead going into the final term.

A semi-final at the G is another story for the Dogs. The Hawks have the edge for mine but the market looks spot on with the spread at 10/11 points.


otp odds

Sydney v Adelaide

All eyes will be on the Swans to see if they can bounce back from last week’s heavy loss to cross-town rivals GWS. Losing Callum Mills and to a lesser extent Kurt Tippett, is certainly not going to help the cause.

Adelaide got the job done for us with a big 10-goal win over North, but the Roos had well and truly run their race this year. As good a win as it was, I’m not sure it is the best preparation for this test. The Crows are ultra-stable however with no changes and their absolute best team on the park.

Apparently the Crows play well at the SCG. Please – two matches in the last 8 years, a 9-goal loss and a 5-point win. I think the Swans will come out fired up this week and a capacity crowd at their true home ground will give them a boost. The steam is for the plus with the line all the way into 7 points as I write. Edge with the Swans for mine, but short on confidence.

Total-wise, these two are relative high-scoring teams, but it wouldn’t surprise to see some real finals-type pressure applied with the Swans attempting to turn it into a dour affair. A small play on the under.

OTP Recommendation

Under 176.5 points3 at 1.91Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds


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    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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