AFL Week One Finals Picks


West Coast v Western Bulldogs

Here we go – a Thursday night to kick off the 2016 Finals Series. West Coast enter the finals in terrific form having won their last four and nine of their last ten, including some quality top-6 wins.

The Bulldogs on the other hand, have limped in. They only kicked six goals against Freo at Subiaco in the final round of the regular season. They get back some of their best in the likes of Stringer, Wood, Macrae and Liberatore. A couple of those however are short on matches and Stringer will need a big lift after playing a few VFL games.

The last six meetings between the two have gone with the home team. West Coast are 9-3 here in finals and the Dogs, already poor in finals, haven’t won one interstate.

In summary, I just think the higher scoring team playing at home in better form will be far too good. It’s a decent start to cover in what could be a dour affair, but I think the Eagles will break it open and run away with it. Bet up to -27.5.

OTP Recommendation

West Coast -25.53 at 2.02Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Geelong v Hawthorn

Oh boy. The tail is firmly between the legs going into this one. Tempted to put the cue in the rack but onwards we go.

Geelong have absolutely flown into the finals with seven wins on the trot. Brownlow cert Dangerfield has led the way and the Cats now lead all but one team in clearances and #1 marks inside 50.

The Hawks have looked average to say the least in the last month, losing 2 of their last four, but as Clarkson rightly points out, they have won 17 for the year – one more than last year – and find themselves at the pointy end of the season with a double chance.

I think the Hawks might just win the mental battle. The anticipated damp conditions should even things up and suit the Hawks nimble forwards like Puopolo and Rioli who come up against a few talls in Lonergan and Taylor.

At around 6/4, I must be getting involved. Play the Hawks straight out small.

OTP Recommendation

Hawthorn to Win2 at 2.49Bookie Image 2-2

otp odds

Adelaide v North Melbourne

Talk about limping into the finals. North have lost nine of their past eleven and moral has been smashed with four veterans shown the door. This really would take a herculean effort.

The club has made the right move for mine – perhaps Harvey could have gone around one more time – but the likes of Petrie and Firrito have dropped off very quickly.

The Crows dropped a game to West Coast in Round 23 – a result that looks even worse now – but I’m confident they will bounce back here against the mentally shot Roos. They have notched up big wins in their past three meetings against North at home and I really can’t see anything else happening here. Take them to cover with a small nibble at the 60+.

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide -32.54 at 1.93Bookie Image 3+3.72

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide 60+1 at 4.10Bookie Image 4+3.1

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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must be 18 +