AFL Round 23 Picks


Adelaide v West Coast

Both teams have plenty to play for here if they want to avoid travel at some stage in the finals. West Coast were great at home against the Hawks but as we know on the road is another story and they have lost the all-important Nic Naitanui again.

Always a little concern coming off a showdown, where they held off Port in a tough encounter, but I think the Crows will be up for this with a top-2 spot on the line. Jacobs will control the ruck and expect the Crows to once again dominate the inside 50s where the trio of Lynch, Walker and Betts to be too strong.

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide -24.53 at 1.92Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Essendon v Carlton

Very little on the line here apart from a lasting memory heading into the long off-season or a happier Mad-Monday but I expect both teams to go in pretty hard.

Carlton broke a nine-game losing streak last week with a win over Melbourne and can salvage something from a poor second half of the season here. The Bombers were far from disgraced against the Bulldogs and have a number of players with careers on the line.

Hard to see a blow out between two low-scoring sides, I think Carlton will get home but not by too much.

OTP Recommendation

Carlton 1-393 at 2.16Bookie Image 2-3

otp odds

St Kilda v Brisbane

Amazingly, these two teams meet for the first time in one and a half seasons. It really is time to equal up the draw. Anyway, another game with very little of consequence on the line.

Brisbane were competitive against Geelong last week for three quarters. Daniel Merrett plays his 200th and final game for the Lions but I’m not sure if it will be enough to get the required lift to be too competitive.

St Kilda screwed down the defence last week and edged Richmond. Expectations are that this will open up with a Total posted around 205.5 but I’m not so sure. It is hard to see the Lions scoring much more than 10 goals so there looks to be some value in the away under.

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane Under 75.5 points3 at 1.90Bookie Image 3-3

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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