AFL Round 21 Picks


Brisbane v Carlton

Thankfully the seats are multi-coloured at the Gabba – you wouldn’t expect too many to turn up to this one. Having said that, it actually shapes up as quite a close encounter.

It’s fair to say that the Lions dropped off after their win over the Bombers, going down to the SA teams by 94 and 138 points. But back at home you would have to think that there is some belief that they are capable of winning this one. The Blues meanwhile, were competitive against the Hawks a fortnight age before being smashed up by the Saints last week.

The Lions are conceding a massive 131 per game but I’m not sure it means so much up against the Blues. I can see why the total has been posted so high, but I think the Blues pressure, combined with poor skill-levels from both teams can keep this under.

OTP Recommendation

Total Points Under 195.53 at 1.91Bookie Image 1+2.73

otp odds

St Kilda v Sydney

It’s all on the line for St Kilda should they wish to keep their faint finals hopes alive. They’ve been the big improvers this year and of course are at home at Etihad. Sydney haven’t done much wrong since losing to the Hawks a month ago. They are very settled – no changes this week – with close to their best line-up on the park.

While the Saints are good at this venue, let’s not forget that Sydney have won their past nine here and also have dominated the H2H’s. They’re simply in a different class. Talk of big names missing for Sydney look unfounded – the line has moved from 30.5 to 17.5. The Monday line looks more accurate to me.

OTP Recommendation

Sydney -17.53 at 1.94Bookie Image 2+2.82

otp odds

Port Adelaide v Melbourne

On last week’s form, Melbourne should be starting 40-point faves. But really, how will Port turn around that horrible 4-goal shocker in Sydney? Melbourne on the other hand put in their best performance of the year with a win over Hawthorn.

The Demons have struggled to back up their wins and have lost their last seven against Port. They have a great opportunity to get another ‘W’ on the board this week though, finding Port at a great time. The start looks great value to me.

OTP Recommendation

Melbourne +16.53 at 1.90Bookie Image 3+2.7

otp odds

Essendon v Gold Coast

Nothing changing for the Bombers with a pathetic goal-less in the first half against Geelong last week. The Suns meanwhile, are finishing the season strongly – as they should with the talent they have been getting back into the team.

I’m looking for a similar pattern as in recent weeks. I do like the Suns chances of covering the match start, late junk time being the only concern. The Suns will start well and really should be a two-goal+ better team in the opening half.

OTP Recommendation

Gold Coast -10.5 First Half3 at 1.90Bookie Image 4-3

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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