AFL Round 18 Picks


Sydney v Carlton

The Swans narrowly went down to the Hawks last week while Carlton were edged at home by a very ordinary West Coast.

The Swans have the class edge all over the field and having had three extra days’ rest can only be another positive. Levi Casboult returns for the Blues but getting the ball down forward is going to be hardest thing. The Swans smash them h2h in contested possession and tackle rate.

Can almost certainly predict a Sydney win with the interest in the margin. I think the line is spot on. Ten points either side gives us around 5/2 in the 20-pt split margin markets which represents value.

OTP Recommendation

Sydney 40-592 at 3.75Bookie Image 1-2

otp odds

Gold Coast v Fremantle

The Suns went down to the Dogs in Cairns last week while Freo went down at home to Geelong.

Gold Coast were soundly beaten but held their own in the second half in Cairns. There is no doubt they are struggling in the midfield, missing the likes of Ablett, Rischitelli and Presita. Freo lose Barlow and Ballantyne to injury with Pavlich staying back in Perth before a final swansong.

Hard to see how Freo are going to score their goals. If the Suns can get some decent ball through the midfield, the likes of Day, Lynch and Wright look set to dominate. Also, don’t underestimate the impact of the forecast 28C conditions where the Suns will be far more acclimatised. I think Gold Coast can come home strong and make it three on the trot at home. Bet up to -11.

OTP Recommendation

Gold Coast -4.54 at 1.93Bookie Image 2+3.72

otp odds

West Coast v Melbourne

The Eagles fell over the line against Carlton last week while the Demons were very disappointing in the second half against St Kilda as their terrible Etihad form continues.

Another venue where the Demons have an appalling record is Subiaco where they are on a 0-16 run. It’s hard to see that getting any better here. West Coast should have put the Roos away by a lot more than they did a fortnight ago and there was last week’s poor performance. I think they turn it all around at home and run into some form here.

I market the line mid 40s so have to be a player where it is now.

OTP Recommendation

West Coast -35.53 at 1.92Bookie Image 3-3

otp odds

Essendon v Brisbane

A combined 26-match losing streak for these two – surely the AFL just open the gates. Last week, Essendon were competitive against Richmond while Brisbane were downright embarrassing at home to GWS.

Happy to admit I got it all wrong last week, expecting the Lions to show some fight. They really appear to have checked out. Justin Leppitsch is not up to AFL standard and must on borrowed time now, no matter what Lethal has said in the past.

Hard to be too confident about a team travelling 0-14 and there is the old #1 Draft Pick theory but I’m taking the Bombers here. They are in better ‘form’ with narrow losses to St Kilda and Richmond for the past two weeks and at home, must be strongly favoured.

OTP Recommendation

Essendon -12.54 at 1.92Bookie Image 4-4

OTP Recommendation

Essendon 40+1 at 4.40Bookie Image 5-1

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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