Round 17 AFL Picks


Richmond v Essendon

Both teams coming off narrow losses last week. The Bombers were gallant against St Kilda, while a few youngsters showed some promise for the Tigers in a competitive match with the Bulldogs.

Zaharakis back from suspension is big for the Bomber midfield. I marked the line around the four and half goal mark so there is some appeal at the current +35.5. However, I will instead get back on the total bandwagon and play the under.

The Bombers have managed to score 90+ in two of the last three weeks, but they are still last in the comp, averaging just 62 PPG. A fine day is forecast but the 178.5 looks too big.

OTP Recommendation

Total Points Under 178.53 at 1.91Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

North Melbourne v Port Adelaide

Both of these have dropped away in recent times. Port were competitive against Hawthorn last week though while the 32-point margin was quite flattering for the Roos loss to West Coast.

The Roos have come out on top in their last two meetings at Etihad but there hasn’t been much in it on both occasions.

Will also be interesting to see how the Roos play this one out with the return from Perth while Port have any extra three days’ rest in the bag. The Power are a big tackling team so an over the top win is on the cards. I think they can go close.

OTP Recommendation

Port Adelaide +20.53 at 1.93Bookie Image 2+2.79

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne/Port Adelaide HT/FT0.5 at 11Bookie Image 3-0.5

otp odds

Adelaide v Collingwood

A massive confidence boosting win from Collingwood over GWS last week while the Crows continued on their merry way cruising past Carlton at the G.

The Crows are all the rage at present on a seven match winning streak. They go in unchanged and should be beating Collingwood. But I think the Pies can carry some of last week’s form through here and get within the spread which has moved all the way to 39.5 – too high.

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood +39.52 at 1.90Bookie Image 4+1.80

otp odds

St Kilda v Melbourne

Both teams looking for rare back-to-back wins. Melbourne put away Freo last week while the Saints just edged a gutsy Bomber outfit.

On last week’s form I can see how the Demons are challenging for favouritism in this one, but six point faves? Let’s not forget that they are pitiful at Etihad - winning just once in their last 24 here – and they have lost 13 on the trot against St Kilda.

These are big mental hurdles to overcome and I’m not sure they will be up to it. Happy to be proven wrong, but all the value with the Saints for mine.

OTP Recommendation

St Kilda +6.53 at 1.92Bookie Image 5+2.76

otp odds

Brisbane v GWS

It will be interesting to see how GWS respond from the drubbing from Collingwood last week. Brisbane come off the Q-clash where they were competitive at Metricon.

The Lions have been blown away early a few times this year but I’m banking on them to be in this from the start. Careers and places in the team are on the line as the season end nears and it would not surprise to see Brisbane notch up a few upsets in the next month.

Not sure they can get the W here, but the line is massive and fast start is a big price.

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane +53.53 at 1.91Bookie Image 6-3

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane First Quarter Winner1 at 5.00Bookie Image 7-1

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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