AFL Round 14 Picks


Adelaide v North Melbourne

The Crows come into this off the bye while the Kangaroos were edged in an extremely physical match against Hawthorn last Friday night.

The Crows were on a four match win streak prior to the bye and have the clear form edge over North who have now dropped three of their last four after going 10-0. Waite is still out for North and Wells will miss with a calf injury, but Swallow returns and will be much needed in anticipated wet and scrappy conditions.

I just think the line has moved too far from an opening 17.5 to now sit around 29.5. North might be crying out for the bye but I think they can put it a big effort in the wet to get within five goals.

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne +29.53 at 1.98Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Just pipped last night, but with 40-17 scoring shots it would have been the luckiest cover of all time. Some really uninspiring matches to complete the short round. Had a lean to the Richmond minus, but that’s gone from 38 to 51 after Zorko pulled out. GWS should cover and tempted by the Saints plus off the bye, but Geelong really are flying at present. That leaves just one play:

Hawthorn v Gold Coast

Like North Melbourne, the Hawks are coming off that very hard match last week and have the bye on the horizon. Gold Coast are coming in fresh off the bye so there should not be an issue seeing the match out.

Yes, the Hawks are near unbeatable in Launceston (won last 17), but they haven’t been all that impressive in recent times. The Suns are getting very close to fielding their best team again and I’m really expecting some better performances from here in.

The Hawks still need a percentage boost but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them limp over the line here with the bye coming at the perfect time next week. Bet down to 48.

OTP Recommendation

Gold Coast +53.53 at 1.92Bookie Image 2+2.76

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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must be 18 +