AFL ROUND 13
Brisbane v West Coast
Can it get any worse for the Lions? They were truly embarrassed last week against Freo. West Coast meanwhile, looked to be going along nicely until a horrendous final term saw the Crows run over the top.
Brisbane have made five changes with Clay Beams coming back in while West Coast miss talls Naitanui and Lycett. West Coast know how to beat up on teams but I think the line here has settled around the mark in the mid-40s.
With a good chance of some junk time, I think there is some decent value in the 40-59 margin at this price.
West Coast 40-592 at 4.20+6.4
Sydney v Melbourne
An undermanned Sydney succumbed to the Giants last week while Melbourne powered away to another 40+ win over Collingwood (how were they ever -2.5??).
A very high chance that this will be playing in the wet. Sydney won’t be perturbed having played a match in such conditions on the Gold Coast a few weeks ago. While rain is often termed a ‘leveller’, too often the best team just win.
As good as the Demons were last week, the Swans at the SCG is a big step up from Collingwood at the MCG. The line looks too skinny for mine – rain or not.
Essendon v GWS
The Giants got back on the winners list last week with a big win over cross-town rivals Sydney. The Bombers meanwhile hit a new low for the season with a dreadful performance against Hawthorn.
It’s very hard to see Essendon turning it around this week. Young and old look to be tiring and the mid-season bye can’t come soon enough. Mumford and Johnson miss, but the Giants love playing Etihad and are gaining a rep as a flat track bully this year. Gun forward Jeremy Cameron will surely use this as a good opportunity to get back into some form.
Going with a half and full spread cover with slightly more weighting to the first half. GWS are one of the best starting teams in the comp while the Bombers are dreadful (3-21 H1 quarters).
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final
Finals Week Three
Finals Week Two
Finals Week One