Line value with Demons


Essendon v Hawthorn

The Bombers handed Fremantle their first win of the season last week while Hawthorn edged the Demons in the wet.

Essendon regain the much-needed experience of Kelly, Jamar and Stokes to the young team that make the trip back from Perth. Hawthorn lose Mitchell to injury but have more than enough talent with Litherland and Langford back in the line-up.

The Hawks will be too good all over the ground and play Etihad well. The line has settled in the low-50’s which looks a goal or two short for mine.

*Note. Plenty of instability in the market as I post. Pinnacle went -45.5 but quickly mopped up. Bet up to 51.5.

OTP Recommendation

Hawthorn -45.54 at 1.93Bookie Image 1+3.72

otp odds

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs

The Dogs come of a well-deserved win over West Coast while Port smashed up a hapless Collingwood by 11 goals.

It was a high quality win for the Dogs last week over the top-8 Eagles. They continue to move the ball out of their underrated defence with great speed. Port’s soft win over the Pies may not prove the best lead-up for a team that has failed to beat a top-8 side all year.

This looks the best chance for the Dogs to notch up their first win at the Adelaide Oval. They have won 8 of the last 10 over Port so should be ultra-confident. The 40+ is way too big given the history of these two also.

OTP Recommendation

Western Bulldogs to Win3 at 2.15Bookie Image 2+3.45

OTP Recommendation

Western Bulldogs 40+1 at 8.50Bookie Image 3-1

otp odds

Geelong v North Melbourne

North come into this off a belting of the Tigers in Hobart while Geelong saw off the GWS challenge to hold on for a tight win.

Not a lot between these two top-3 teams on paper and the bookies and punters seem to agree. The Cats lose Hawkins to suspension which leaves a certain 2-4 goals to be made up somewhere.

The Roos have won their last four against Geelong and are 6-0 at Etihad this year. That will do me.

OTP Recommendation

North Melbourne to Win3 at 2.05Bookie Image 4-3

otp odds

St Kilda v Carlton

Another poor performance from the albeit injury-hit Saints last week in Adelaide. Carlton meanwhile notched up their sixth win of the season at home to Brisbane.

Injuries have savaged the Saints at this stage. Missing Riewoldt is not even the biggest concern with the likes of Dempster, Fisher and Goddard missing from the backline.

A small prop here. While I think the Blues will come out on top in the end, it would not surprise at all to see St Kilda start well and maintain a lead going into the main break.

OTP Recommendation

St Kilda/Carlton HT/FT1 at 7.50Bookie Image 5-1

otp odds

Melbourne v Collingwood

As mentioned already, Melbourne were most competitive against the Hawks last week while Collingwood were demoralised by Port Adelaide.

So here we are with Melbourne starting fave in a Queens Birthday clash for the first time in over a decade. And so they should be. Yes, they lack any consistency, but on any sort of form they really should be winning this with some ease. They hammered the Pies in their last two meetings, the latest at the G in Round Four and what has changed since?

Travis Cloke’s career has to be over as he exits the team. If the Demons can put a stop on Jesse White they will be well on their way.
Another game where Pinnacle have made a big move to 1.83/-2.5 while a general -6.5/8.5 is bet onshore. That won’t be there long. Apologies if you cant get the -2.5 but bet Melbourne up to -12.5.

OTP Recommendation

Melbourne -2.54 at 1.99Bookie Image 6+3.96

OTP Recommendation

Melbourne 40+1 at 5.80Bookie Image 7+4.8

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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