AFL ROUND 11
North Melbourne v Richmond
The Roos dropped their first game of the season to Sydney last Friday while Richmond made in three in a row with a rather unimpressive win over Essendon.
Winning form is good form but coming off a soft win over the Bombers might not be the ideal lead-up for the Tigers. North weren’t completely outclassed at Sydney and will be keen to bounce back at their second home where they have won seven in a row.
My read of totals this year has been dreadful, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go real low with some very cold and dewy conditions forecast. I think the Roos will get home but can’t see it being a blowout.
Geelong v GWS
Another loss for the Cats last week to Carlton while GWS were competitive as they met and went down to the Crows in Adelaide.
Two horror losses in a row as 40+ point favourites for Geelong. Confidence must be shot, the away win at Adelaide seems so long ago now. The young and running GWS got the better of the Cats in Round 2 in Canberra but down at the Cattery is a different story.
This looks to be a tight match with the line right where I marked it at a couple of goals. Betting wise, I think GWS can and will start well before possibly getting overrun. The 6/1 on the flip flop looks to be of some value.
Gold Coast v Sydney
Gold Coast’s loss to West Coast last week makes it seven losses in a row with an average losing margin of 87 points over the past five matches. No such issues for Sydney after their aforementioned win over league leaders North Melbourne.
An intriguing betting match with some truly putrid conditions forecast. At time of writing, the total currently sits at 130.5 with one shop’s line on Suns goals at just 5.5.
Rodney Eade has made no less than six changes to the insipid team that went down to West Coast. I really can’t see any of the incoming talent making too much of a difference. This team is completely shot. They are returning from Perth, facing an unchanged Sydney whom they have never beaten or let alone finished within 35 points of. The wet weather with only accentuate the gulf in skill levels.
The line has come in from as much as 44 down to 36 presumably on the weather forecast. IMO it should have gone up. Take Sydney minus up to 45.
Western Bulldogs v West Coast
It’s fair to say the Bulldogs weren’t too inspiring in their win over and injury-hit Collingwood last week, while West Coast got the job done at home when hosting the lowly Suns.
The Bulldogs are back on familiar territory at Etihad Stadium this week and must be favoured to get the W. They will need some betting input from key forward Jake Stringer, but he, like the club, plays best at this venue.
West Coast are still travelling okay but I think they might get out run here. I had the Dogs two goal faves.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final
Finals Week Three
Finals Week Two
Finals Week One