AFL: Crows a spread special


Collingwood v Geelong

The Magpies were as good as the Lions were bad last week while the Cats notched up a huge win over the Crows in Adelaide.

This is quite the mismatch on paper with the 2nd placed Geelong winning their last six games by an average of 56-points. The likes of Pendlebury and Sidebottom will need to be at their best for the Pies against the likes of Selwood and Dangerfield.

I marked this around the 20-point mark. I think Collingwood are improving and of course will carry some confidence through from their win last week. A six-goal start is well within reach.

OTP Recommendation

Collingwood +37.53 at 1.90Bookie Image 1+2.7

otp odds

Gold Coast v Adelaide

It’s fair to say that Adelaide were disappointing in their aforementioned rare home loss to Geelong last Friday. Gold Coast meanwhile, were completely hammered by fellow expansion team GWS.

It’s been a horror three weeks for Gold Coast with an average losing margin of 94-points. Now without Ablett, Hall and Saad, it’s not going to turn around here. How on earth are the likes of Schade, Leslie and Lemmens going to stop Tom Lynch, Walker and Betts?

They really should be covering the spread (bet up to -61.5) and the 100+ is a solid spec.

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide -56.54 at 1.91Bookie Image 2+3.64

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide 100+1 at 8.00Bookie Image 3-1

otp odds

GWS v Western Bulldogs

The Giants made it four wins in five with a massive win over the Suns last week while the Bulldogs continued to impress with a win over a much-improved Melbourne.

The Bulldogs really have impressed, getting to 6-2 despite a decent injury list. Their depth will be tested to the max this week however after losing Boyd to suspension. They are left with a big chunk missing from their starting backline and the hard run of GWS will be throwing plenty of action forward. I do think the line has fallen in the right place though.

I know totals have not been my strong suit this season, but I’m going to the well again here. Both teams are averaging high and I just don’t think Beveridge will be planning a defensive game style to combat the young running Giants at this stage.

OTP Recommendation

Over 189.5 points3 at 1.91Bookie Image 4-3

otp odds

St Kilda v Essendon

Not much to say here, but not often do a team coming off a 100+ point drubbing start a 30-point fave the next week. The Bombers are really struggling to score so it’s no surprise that oddsmakers and punters have settled on this mark.

I’m going to play a few props to finish off the round and take a stab at some of the bookies auto-deriving markets.

The Bombers list of young and old are capable of starting matches well. They look a big price to do just that before getting overrun again.

OTP Recommendation

Essendon/St Kilda HT/FT Double0.5 at 7.00Bookie Image 5-0.5

OTP Recommendation

Ess/StK/StK/Stk Quarter Quad0.5 at 8.50Bookie Image 6-0.5

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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