AFL ROUND 9
Collingwood v Geelong
The Magpies were as good as the Lions were bad last week while the Cats notched up a huge win over the Crows in Adelaide.
This is quite the mismatch on paper with the 2nd placed Geelong winning their last six games by an average of 56-points. The likes of Pendlebury and Sidebottom will need to be at their best for the Pies against the likes of Selwood and Dangerfield.
I marked this around the 20-point mark. I think Collingwood are improving and of course will carry some confidence through from their win last week. A six-goal start is well within reach.
Gold Coast v Adelaide
It’s fair to say that Adelaide were disappointing in their aforementioned rare home loss to Geelong last Friday. Gold Coast meanwhile, were completely hammered by fellow expansion team GWS.
It’s been a horror three weeks for Gold Coast with an average losing margin of 94-points. Now without Ablett, Hall and Saad, it’s not going to turn around here. How on earth are the likes of Schade, Leslie and Lemmens going to stop Tom Lynch, Walker and Betts?
They really should be covering the spread (bet up to -61.5) and the 100+ is a solid spec.
GWS v Western Bulldogs
The Giants made it four wins in five with a massive win over the Suns last week while the Bulldogs continued to impress with a win over a much-improved Melbourne.
The Bulldogs really have impressed, getting to 6-2 despite a decent injury list. Their depth will be tested to the max this week however after losing Boyd to suspension. They are left with a big chunk missing from their starting backline and the hard run of GWS will be throwing plenty of action forward. I do think the line has fallen in the right place though.
I know totals have not been my strong suit this season, but I’m going to the well again here. Both teams are averaging high and I just don’t think Beveridge will be planning a defensive game style to combat the young running Giants at this stage.
St Kilda v Essendon
Not much to say here, but not often do a team coming off a 100+ point drubbing start a 30-point fave the next week. The Bombers are really struggling to score so it’s no surprise that oddsmakers and punters have settled on this mark.
I’m going to play a few props to finish off the round and take a stab at some of the bookies auto-deriving markets.
The Bombers list of young and old are capable of starting matches well. They look a big price to do just that before getting overrun again.
Ess/StK/StK/Stk Quarter Quad0.5 at 8.50-0.5
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final
Finals Week Three
Finals Week Two
Finals Week One