Crows to give Dogs a bite


Richmond v Hawthorn

Did the Tigers hit rock bottom with their fifth consecutive loss last week going down to Port at home? Who knows. Meanwhile, after three narrow wins, the Hawks were steamrolled by the surging GWS with the pundits quick to call the end of an era. Not so fast.

The Tigers lose Cotchin and drop Maric with Vlastuin and Griffiths among the ins. The Hawks lose Hodge while Frawley has failed to come up from a concussion. Losing Frawley puts a lot of pressure on Gibson down back with Kaiden Brand on debut.

A very interesting clash. I think the Tigers can stay in touch for a good part of this one. The line has moved from +41 down as low as +33 as I write, eliminating any plus full time value – if anything the straight out is probably the way to go. Instead, the value for mine is with the H1 line and a nibble on the flip flop.

OTP Recommendation

Richmond +16.5 First Half3 at 1.95Bookie Image 1+2.85

OTP Recommendation

Richmond/Hawthorn HT/FT Double1 at 7.25Bookie Image 2-1

otp odds

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide

The Dogs were contained to just six goals last week in a loss to the league-leading Kangaroos while Adelaide gradually got the better of a wasteful Fremantle.

Top ranking mid-fielder Lachie Hunter looks like he has got the all clear from a concussion which is ultra-important for the Dogs with Murphy out of the picture. Adelaide losing Laird out of the centre is a blow but Crouch returns to somewhat make up the loss.

Nothing too wrong with the Dogs form but I just feel that the Crows will be up for this. They play Etihad well and will take some stopping.

OTP Recommendation

Adelaide to Win3 at 2.12Bookie Image 3-3

otp odds

Fremantle v GWS

As mentioned, Fremantle were most wasteful in a six-goal loss to Adelaide last week while GWS powered on with that huge win over Hawthorn.

Who could have possibly predicted that Freo would be 20-point dogs in this clash at the start of the season. GWS are on top on just about every stat possible in this match-up based on the first six rounds so it’s easy to see how oddsmakers and punters have GWS solid faves. They have yet to taste victory against Freo however, losing in each of the past four years – only by 21 points late last year.

I’ve been aboard the GWS bandwagon but I just have to take a nibble at the Freo plus based on an overreaction. Fremantle were okay last week. Their experienced players have to stand up and a big tackling effort should have them involved in a tight encounter. Bet down to +20.

OTP Recommendation

Fremantle +23.53 at 1.98Bookie Image 4+2.94

otp odds

St Kilda v North Melbourne

The Saints come into this full of confidence after an underdog win over Melbourne while the Kangaroos remained undefeated in the aforementioned uninspiring arm wrestle with the Bulldogs.

While everyone waits for the Roos to notch up their first loss, they continue on their merry way. The Saints are fielding a strong line-up and are scoring freely. In fact, both of these teams are averaging just over 50 inside-50’s. I think the free-flowing end-to-end football should continue so I’ll be taking the over.

While the line looks about right at around +21, the Saints look some value at 6/4 to start well and lead at the first break.

OTP Recommendation

Over 195.5 Points3 at 1.90Bookie Image 5-3

OTP Recommendation

St Kilda First Quarter Winner2 at 2.50Bookie Image 6-2

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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