AFL ROUND 6
Melbourne v St Kilda
Melbourne made it two-in-a-row with a win over Richmond last week while St Kilda were blown away late by a very sharp GWS outfit.
If ever the Demons are really going to put to rest their Etihad Stadium hoodoo, this looks to be the game. Melbourne come into this as the fourth most prolific goal-scoring team through five rounds.
While on form they should be winning this one, such is there indifference to this venue and long-term inconsistency, I think they go in a bit short as 7-8 point faves.
Apart from the final quarter blowout last week to the red-hot GWS, the Saints have been thereabouts. I have a feeling they will be up for this one and keen to defend their stellar winning record against Melbourne. I have a solid lean to the under – I think the Saints can stifle the Demons offence somewhat – and also think there is sufficient value to play the plus. *Plenty of steam since I wrote this up - will take the Saints straight out with a reduced stake.
St Kilda to win2 at 2.20+2.4
Adelaide v Fremantle
Adelaide really had the game stolen from them last Friday night as the Hawks did the impossible again, while Fremantle come off a new low against Carlton at home to now sit at 0-5.
Not a real lot to say here. Things go from bad to worse for Freo losing Fyfe and Johnson to injury. I can’t imagine the Crows letting the foot off the pedal in front of a full house at home.
I know this may appear a mug bet to some, but with the line around 49 points, the 40-59 margin is simply too big at a freely available 3/1.
Adelaide 40-592 at 4.10-2
Geelong v Gold Coast
Geelong heaped some more pain on with a runaway win over Port last week while the struggling Suns were well accounted for by league leaders North Melbourne.
The Suns are missing a lot of talent but I don’t think they will be disgraced here. Getting the pill in the hands of Lynch will obviously be paramount. The line in the high 40’s looks about right to me.
With some wind around, winning the toss and getting a fast start is not beyond the Suns. Going with another prop that bookies often pay little attention to. Gold Coast to hang in for a quarter.
Brisbane v Sydney
The Lions were comprehensively beaten by the Bulldogs last week while Sydney’s midfield impressed again in a 39-point win over West Coast.
It almost goes without saying the class of the Sydney line-up should prevail comfortably. They have put the Lions away at the Gabba in each of the past two seasons and it’s hard to see any other outcome this week.
Small lean to the plus but instead I will have a nibble on the under. I just don’t know how Brisbane are going to score freely against the Swans defence, even without veteran Ted Richards.
Under 190.5 Points3 at 1.88-3
West Coast v Collingwood
As mentioned, West Coast rather limply succumbed to the Swans last week while Collingwood came good against the battling Bombers on Anzac Day.
Collingwood step back up to the big league this week with West Coast on the rebound and Subiaco a daunting proposition. Playing the lowly Bombers on Anzac Day is hardly the best preparation for mine. The Eagles look to be too strong all over the field. A blowout is well and truly on the cards. Take the 60+ with some confidence.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final
Finals Week Three
Finals Week Two
Finals Week One