AFL Round Five Picks


Hawthorn v Adelaide

The Hawks fell over the line last week in a pretty average performance against St Kilda in Tasmania while Adelaide notched up a hard fought win over Sydney in a match of very high quality.

It’s a while since Adelaide have tasted success against the Hawks but they are clearly playing at a high level at present. Two big in’s for the Hawks with Gibson and Hill returning while Shaun Burgoyne 300th is one for the milestone-boosting players.

I marked this up in the mid-20’s and I expect the steam to come for the minus, but I would prefer to see the Hawks go around once more. Moving to the total – both teams have been scoring with ease but this has come up very big for a night fixture. There will be some hard-fought low-scoring periods that should ensure this goes under.

OTP Recommendation

Total Points Under 199.53 at 1.91Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Gold Coast v North Melbourne

The Suns come off a disappointing Q-Clash loss while North remain unbeaten after easing past the struggling Freo Dockers.

No less than five changes at the Suns in comparison to North who front up with the same 22. It goes without saying that the Suns have disappointed somewhat so far this year. Coach Eade has so far failed to instil some much-needed maturity into the line-up for mine. The Roos will be ultra-confident and travel well. 

I marked this one around the 20-point mark. Again, I’m looking at the total. These two teams are averaging 109 and 123 respectively this year. They have played out some low-scoring affairs back in the mid-winters of 2012 and 2013 – surely the oddsmakers don’t take those into account when coming up with this total? I’m an over player up to 190.

OTP Recommendation

Total Points Over 185.53 at 1.88Bookie Image 2+2.64

otp odds

St Kilda v GWS

As already mentioned, the Saints all but got over the line in a stellar effort at Launceston last week while GWS continued on nicely for us with a mammoth win over Port Adelaide.

Long story short – I’m not jumping of the Giants bandwagon just yet. Once again the bookies and punters seem to be underrating this team – and they get back star forward Jeremy Cameron. They play Etihad Stadium well and have only improved since beating the Saints by 9 points here in Round One last year.

The Saints were dour last week but the young, running Giants will take some stopping on the fast track.

OTP Recommendation

GWS -8.53 at 1.91Bookie Image 3+2.73

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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