AFL Round 4: Giants with edge


West Coast v Richmond

The Eagles powered away last week in the Derby after the undermanned Dockers put up a brave effort. Richmond meanwhile, were trounced in the first half in what can only be described as a lacklustre performance.

The Tigers travel well and have won their last two matches (’13 and ’14) against the Eagles in Perth. It’s almost like the weight of hometown support is lifted off the shoulders when they get on the road. Bookies highly rate West Coast but they have beaten Brisbane, lost again to Hawthorn and beaten a weak Fremantle. I expect them to be fully challenged here.

The line is a couple of goals too big for mine. Play the plus.

OTP Recommendation

Richmond +33.53 at 1.91Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Essendon v Geelong

The cobbled together Bomber line-up gave some early respect back last week with a rather poor performance against Port Adelaide while Geelong eased away to a big win against Brisbane at home.

Essendon have had a few days’ extra rest but at this early stage of the year the affect must be negligible. Worsfold continues to rotate a few in and out while the Cats have rested Enright in a show of confidence.

I do believe the Bombers will be more competitive at home at the ‘G’ this year. The Cats may well think they have this one in the bag before the ball is bounced. Had a lean to the plus, but greater value looks to lay in the 20-point margin split.

OTP Recommendation

Geelong 40-592 at 4.50Bookie Image 2-2

otp odds

Brisbane v Gold Coast

Brisbane return from the aforementioned hammering at Geelong while the Suns last week racked up 30 scoring shots in a nine-goal win over Carlton at home.

The latest Q-clash promises to be an entertaining affair. The Lions have a massive in with Rich back into the 22. The Suns have lost a few with Matera surprisingly dropped.

The hard-running Suns have scored 121-126-95 this year with Brisbane at 102-83-56, only being contained at Geelong. On recent history and what we’ve seen so far this year, I can’t see this being an ultra-defensive affair with the free-flowing footy continuing. I have to be an over player.

OTP Recommendation

Total Points Over 178.53 at 1.93Bookie Image 3+2.79

otp odds

GWS v Port Adelaide

GWS come off an honourable 25-point loss to an in-form Sydney while it’s hard to read too much into Port’s post-Showdown bounce back against Carlton.

GWS are much better than their 1-2 start for mine. They were thereabouts against Sydney last week, beat Geelong in R2 and of course all but beat the Demons in R1. The Giants midfield of Shiel, Scully and Ward will take some stopping and with some improved use inside 50, I think they will have too much for Port.

The market has come back to Port a touch with the inclusion of Hartlett and Wingard but I'm certainly not jumping off the bandwagon now and have to take GWS straight out with a nibble at the 40+.

OTP Recommendation

GWS to win3 at 1.88Bookie Image 4+2.64

OTP Recommendation

GWS 40+1 at 6.50Bookie Image 5+5.5

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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