Dogs to finish stronger


Port Adelaide v Essendon

Last week: Port were really blown away early in an embarrassing Showdown effort while Essendon showed huge grit to upset Melbourne.

Port are expected to bounce straight back here. They lose Carlile and Wingard to injury while the Bombers go in unchanged. There is no doubt the Bombers outperformed expectations last week but despite all the talk, this is hardly the worst side to grace an AFL field.

The huge 45.5-point start is tempting. I will however look towards a low first half total. I know Port have let in 100 and 144 over the first two rounds, but the key Bomber forwards have not looked at all comfortable. Being a night fixture and Port needing to focus on some backline improvement, I’m taking the first half under with solid confidence.

OTP Recommendation

First Half Under 89.5 points4 at 1.90Bookie Image 1-4

otp odds

Gold Coast v Carlton

Last week: Gold Coast notched up their first victory over Fremantle in fine style out West, while Carlton were worn right down against the class of Sydney by 10 goals.

Gold Coast maintain a very strong line-up this week while the Blues make three changes and bring in two first-gamers. It’s a long trip back from Perth for the Suns – they do have an extra days rest - but they have drawn well here and should have far too much run.

I think they will get well on top early before going through the motions as they get a good lead up. Play the first half minus.

OTP Recommendation

Gold Coast -17.5 First Half3 at 1.95Bookie Image 2-3

otp odds

Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn

Last week: The Doggies ruined Riewoldt’s 300th and smashed up St Kilda while Hawthorn went against the steam with an underdog win over West Coast in the Grand Final replay.

These two teams play this ground as good as any so this should be belter. The Doggies are flying at present and it seems will never have a better chance at knocking off the champs. I’m not going to completely write off the Hawks chances here but on the trend from the first two rounds, one way or another the Bulldogs should be finishing stronger.

Also, I did have a lean to the over, but with fine weather forecast, one would have to assume that the Etihad roof will remain open for this match.

OTP Recommendation

Western Bulldogs -0.5 Second Half3 at 1.95Bookie Image 3+2.85

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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