Giants to pounce on Cat let down


Collingwood v Richmond

Last week: An opening round smash-up from Sydney can’t have done too much for confidence in Pie-land while Richmond underperformed in edging Carlton in the opener last Thursday.

Some massive outs for Collingwood in the name of Witts, Sidebottom and Swan. Richmond are also hit by injuries losing Rioli and Edwards while the important Deledio and Maric remain on the sidelines. They do regain Grigg to add some midfield run.

Both teams are undermanned but Richmond have a few extra days break and are on a different path. I had the line significantly higher so have to be a minus player. Bet up to 7.5.

OTP Recommendation

Richmond -5.53 at 1.93Bookie Image 1-3

otp odds

Essendon v Melbourne

Last week: Melbourne came back from the dead to edge GWS. Essendon, while thumped by 10 goals at Gold Coast, did just about hold their own in the second half in a performance that perhaps wasn’t as bad as could have been expected.

It will be interesting to see how this cobbled together Bomber line-up perform back at home. Coach John Worsfold has quickly brought in a few first gamers so the desire should be there. I do note that the early +42.5 has been specked all the way down to as low as +36.5 at time of writing.

I will however move my attention to the total score. Worsfold might be inclined to play a couple back here and continue to toughen up with some much needed D. The two teams only scored 12 and 9 goals respectively last week, they trend low and there is a slight chance of a shower in the forecast.

OTP Recommendation

Under 176.5 points3 at 1.88Bookie Image 2+2.64

otp odds

Brisbane v North Melbourne

Last week: The Kangaroos produced when it mattered against Adelaide in a high quality match while Brisbane did manage to notch up 43 entries and 100 points in a big loss in the tough away opener against West Coast.

Expectations are low in Brisbane and while they lose Paparone and Robinson, they get three quality players back in the name of Merrett, Green and Zorko.

North certainly know how to play the flat track bully role but I don’t think they will have it all their own way today. The twilight match is set to kick off in a very warm 31C. I think Brisbane will start well and possible get worn down as the match goes on. Play the first half plus down to 12.

OTP Recommendation

Brisbane +13.5 First Half2 at 1.90Bookie Image 3-3

otp odds

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs

Last week: St Kilda were in touch for three quarters before a final term blowout to Port Adelaide while the Bulldogs started in a blaze as they went on to thrash Fremantle by 65 points.

The Bulldogs have had upper hand on the Saints over the past few seasons but all encounters have been close. Nick Riewoldt plays his 300th in what is sure to get his team up and about.

We should see some free-flowing footy and I’m looking for St Kilda to start strong again this week. Whether they can stay in touch for four full quarters is questionable.

OTP Recommendation

St Kilda First Quarter Winner2 at 2.80Bookie Image 4-2

OTP Recommendation

St Kilda +13.5 First Half2 at 1.95Bookie Image 5-2

otp odds

Fremantle v Gold Coast

Last week: As previously mentioned Fremantle were demolished by the Dogs while Gold Coast did what they had to against Essendon.

Ross Lyon hasn’t wasted any time in omitting a few underperformers as they are bolstered by the return of Johnson and Sandilands. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out. After all the talk of a more attacking game style, the Dockers could only manage five goals in the opening round. It is hard to see this one opening up too much.

I think the Suns can cover the spread here. Bet down to 30.

OTP Recommendation

Gold Coast +32.53 at 1.92Bookie Image 6+2.76

otp odds

GWS v Geelong

Last week: GWS let the match against the Demons slip away while Geelong got up over the Hawks with a huge final term on Easter Monday.

Some solid in’s for GWS with Hoskin-Elliot, Coniglio and Patton back for this encounter in Canberra. I’m willing to forgive the Giants for the loss last week, I think they will continue to improve and will be raring to atone for the loss. Geelong look to be an improved team, but I can easily see a let down here coming off the big stage at the G on Monday.

While it is early in the season, the extra two days recovery can only help GWS. Gotta be on the plus down to 14.

OTP Recommendation

GWS +16.53 at 1.92Bookie Image 7+2.76

otp odds

    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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