AFL GRAND FINAL
Hawthorn v West Coast
I think it is fair to say that we have the best two teams fighting it out for the Flag. West Coast have cruised into the Grand Final really – firstly with an easy win over Hawthorn at home before last week's comfortable win over North Melbourne. The Hawks have had to do it a bit harder after their loss to West Coast, beating Adelaide and Fremantle back in Perth.
Key forward Gunston returns while the important Hodge has supposedly beaten a bad back. Both can't be 100% which poses a big risk in a Grand Final should one go down early.
The Hawks had won five straight against West Coast prior to the Qualifying loss, but they haven't played each other at the MCG since 2012. The fact that West Coast have only played one match here this season (20-point loss to Richmond) has to be of concern.
A few more question marks surround this match. How will the West Coast youngsters cope with the Grand Final pressure? How much will two trips to Perth in three weeks have taken out of the Hawks? How will the warm weather affect the teams?
With regard to the above, I have to go with my initial small lean to Hawthorn at the spread. And I do think there is a touch of value in the 40+ which bookies will be winding out with all the 1-39 mug money.
Regarding the total, a lean to the under is cancelled out by the warm weather and resultant fast track. The Norm Smith Medal is not something I usually get involved in and that won't change this year. But Luke Hodge might have to only be in the top three or so to earn the honour for what would be a history-making third time.
So there it is, a small play to finish the season. Very happy to have finished the year with a solid double-figure ROI. Dabbled with a few props out wide earlier in the year, but finished the second half of the season sticking the mainstream markets. I hope you've made some decent $$ and haven't had too many accounts chopped in the process.
See you back at OTP in 2016.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI BEST BET Grand Final
Finals Week Three
Finals Week Two
Finals Week One