COURTESYFOOTBALL FORM LABS
Weekend Team News Analysis
Milan v Chievo
Perparim Hetemaj (CM), Chievo
Hetemaj has missed 23 games since the start of last season and Chievo have conceded 1.74 goals per game without him. That’s an increase of 83% goals per game conceded compared to Chievo’s 41 matches with him.
Nonetheless, 10 wins after 26 rounds is the best return for the Chievo since 2010, while on the road they’ve enjoyed success in their last two outings. AC have kept just four clean sheets in their last 15 in the league, whilst this season Chievo have netted in 11 of their 14 meetings with top-half sides, including recent trips to Lazio, Inter and Roma. We’re backing Both Teams to Score at 2.0
Eintracht Frankfurt v Freiburg
Max Philipp (FW), Freiburg
Freiburg are missing their leading scorer for this trip and they’ve found the net just six times in their previous six games without him this season. However, Eintracht are out of form and the continued absence of Marco Fabian is hurting them as they’ve failed to score in half the 10 matches he’s missed this season as seven of those games have had fewer than three goals.
Frankfurt have now failed to score in six of their last nine and are the lowest scorers of anyone in the top-half. We’re backing Under 1.5 Goals at 3.12
Bologna v Lazio
Domenico Maietta (CB) and Daniele Gastaldello (CB), Bologna
Bologna have lost five of their last seven matches without Maietta with their sole win in that sample coming against a woeful Pescara side. Meanwhile, they’ve won just four and lost 18 of the 28 matches captain Gastaldello has missed since the start of last season.
However, they may well fancy their chances of netting against a Lazio side that has managed only one clean sheet in their last seven, and just two away all season. Lazio have nonetheless won four of their last six away and have triumphed in all four of their visits to sides outside the top-11. We’re backing Lazio to win and both teams to score at 3.8
Fancy the three bets above? It's a 21/1 treble that they all come in!
Roma v Napoli - Saturday 14:00
This is the pick of the European action this weekend and it has the potential to be an absolute classic. They are the two highest scoring teams in Italy and while neither looks likely to catch runaway leaders Juventus, they will want to ensure they hold onto their podium positions. From that perspective this game is a lot more important for Napoli as Roma are eight clear of Atalanta and nine ahead of Lazio. Napoli, meanwhile, are only three and four points ahead of those sides and aren’t well placed in their head-to-heads with either.
Roma are unbeaten in their last 24 home matches but more impressively they’ve won their last 15 here in the Stadio Olimpico. Moreover, their excellent home record goes back further as from 2012/13 to 2015/16 they won 13 and lost just two of 20 home matches against top-six finishers. Those 20 matches had an even split of over and under 2.5 goals, however there’s every chance of more here. 16 of Roma’s 22 home games since Luciano Spalletti took over have had at least three goals, with 12 having four or more strikes.
Since the start of last season Napoli have had at least three goals in 63% of their matches but the middle third of this campaign has seen an increase. Their last 12 matches have averaged 4.17 goals per game and that’s included a run of five wins in their last six away games during which they’ve scored 22 times. That run has included a win at Milan and draw at Fiorentina but in their other two trips to leading sides they were beaten at Juventus and Atalanta. That follows just one point from their five trips to top-five finishers last season and they’ve lost this fixture in each of the past four years.
With Dries Mertens in the form of his life having netted three hat-tricks since the start of December and with Arkadiusz Milik returning to fitness, Napoli have plenty of options going forward. That certainly leads us towards backing Over 3.5 Goals at 2.5. However, we’re not sure they can get anything from the match. Both these teams lost in the cup in midweek but while Roma were impressive winners at Inter last week that was a second defeat in a row for Napoli. Both are in European action next week but Napoli’s home clash with Real Madrid is two days before Roma’s trip to Lyon and has a much higher profile. Given Roma’s superb home record we think they’ll take advantage of any distraction for Napoli and at 2.15 they look good value for the home win.
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