Form Labs Weekender

COURTESYFOOTBALL FORM LABS

Weekend Team News Analysis

Hull v Burnley

Sam Clucas (LM) and Abel Hernandez (FW), Hull

Clucas is suspended and he’s missed just one game this season – the 2-2 with Everton. However, last season he missed seven, all of which were against teams that finished in the bottom-half of the Championship, but they still failed to keep a clean sheet in any as they conceded 11 times without him. In attack, Hernandez is a huge miss, as they’ve averaged 1.55 gpg in his 44 appearances since the start of last season but just 0.85 gpg in the 27 he’s missed. Furthermore, he’s missed 15 matches this season and they’ve gone W1-D4-L10 without him compared to W4-D1-L5 with, as eight of those 10 defeats he’s missed have been to nil.

Burnley have famously picked up only one point on their travels this term, but they’ve only gone to Leicester of the current bottom-seven so far and there have been signs of improvements as their last five defeats have been by just a single goal, despite them going to Arsenal, City and Spurs in that time. We’re backing them to pick up their first away win at 3.9.

Hertha v Eintracht Frankfurt

Jesus Vallejo (CB) and David Abraham (CB), Eintracht Frankfurt

Eintracht are missing their two best centre-backs for this game. Abraham has missed eight games since the start of last season and while they’ve won half of those, three of the wins came against the bottom two last term. Nevertheless they’ve conceded 29% more goals per game than with him in that time.

Hertha have been excellent at home this term, winning eight of their 10 games and leading at the break in five of their last eight. We’re backing Hertha/Hertha HT/FT at 3.6.

Eibar v Malaga

Nacho Camacho (DM), Malaga

Camacho has missed 17 games since the start of last season and Malaga have won only four times without him. Furthermore, they’ve failed to score in 11 of those games.

Eibar have been impressive at home this term, with two of their three defeats at the Ipurua Municipal Stadium coming against Barca and Atletico as they’ve managed a draw against Sevilla and beaten Sociedad, Villarreal and Celta Vigo, all of whom are above Malaga in the table. We’re backing the home win to nil at 3.6

Fancy the three bets above? It's a 48/1 treble that they all come in!

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona - Sunday 15:15, Sky Sports 2

Barcelona might be second by just one point to Real Madrid heading into this weekend but with their great rivals having a game in hand the title will probably prove to be beyond Luis Enrique’s men. After the Champions League capitulation this season is threatening to peter out for Barcelona as even a Copa del Rey will be scant consolation for a team used to dominating and winning the biggest prizes over the past decade.

Barca have won only five of their last nine away matches and but for some moments of brilliance from Lionel Messi they would have dropped many more points. They’ve played the current top six once each this season, going just W1-D4-L0 with their win coming over Sevilla in a match they trailed in.

Atletico haven’t beaten Barca in the league in more than seven years but they have knocked the Catalans out of the Champions League in two of the previous three years so they certainly won’t fear their visitors. Furthermore, while Barca seem to be suffering from a lack of confidence and a lack of identity, Atletico will know this is as good a time to play them as there is. They’re unbeaten in eight games with six wins and their only defeat in their last 28 home games came against Real Madrid.

Since 2013/14 Atletico have gone an excellent W4-D5-L5 against the Big Two in La Liga. These matches have had an even split between under and over 2.5 goals but Atleti have already conceded more goals this season than in the whole of the 2015/16 campaign, while they are also scoring at a faster rate as they are developing into a more attack-minded side. With 11 of Barca’s last 21 away matches seeing at least four goals that would lead us to prefer Over 2.5 at 1.91. However, our favourite bet here has to be siding with Atletico in the match outcome. Luis Enrique’s side are struggling in defence and midfield, particularly when faced by high-energy sides that can transition quickly against them. With Carrasco and Griezmann both in excellent form they have the perfect players to hurt Barcelona and we think they can end their winless streak, with the Draw No Bet offering plenty of value.

Best Bet: Atletico Draw No Bet at 2.10

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