COURTESY FOOTBALL FORM LABS
Juventus v Roma, Sat 19:45
There’s a huge match in Serie A this weekend as the rest of the league will be cheering Roma on at J-Stadium. A 25th consecutive home win for the champions will effectively end the title race, with a seven point surely too much for any of their rivals to make up.
Juve have beaten top-eight opposition in the shape of Torino and Atalanta in the past two weeks as they make up for their thrashing at Genoa prior to that. Having scored three times in both those wins and with Paulo Dybala returning from injury they are looking very dangerous going forward. With Higuain bagging a brace last weekend the attack is at full strength. However, the same can not be said for their defence. Dani Alves and Leonardo Bonucci remain out but there is a chance Andrea Barzagli will be available. Only twice in their last 11 games has the Old Lady stopped the opposition from scoring, and Dinamo Zagreb and Pescara were the two weakest teams to play them in that time.
Roma, meanwhile, are the league’s highest scorers and having beaten Milan and Lazio in the last two weeks they are also in good form. They’ve won 10 of their last 16 away matches, during which they’ve scored more than two goals per game. However, they are also better going forward than defending. They’ve kept just two clean sheets in the last 15 of those road trips as 12 had at least three goals and 10 had four or more.
Juventus have had at least three goals in 15 of their last 18 matches and in 11 of their last 12 at home. Over Goals looks a great bet, with +2.5 a 1.8 shot and +3.5 at 3.1. However, it’s hard to ignore the champions’ home record. As well as winning their last 24 here they’ve won all 15 of their home games against top-four finishers in the past five completed seasons with seven wins by more than one goal.
While Juve have their injury problems at the back Roma also have a couple of key players missing. Mo Salah’s absence is a major blow to their attack and perhaps explains their more cautious approach in the past couple of weeks, however he's resmued training and may make a return. Meanwhile, Bruno Peres is a fresh injury and he’ll be missed from right-back as they look to keep Dybala quiet. Their vulnerability down that flank means we’re backing another Juve win at 1.8 but we still expect both sides to score so the 3.6 on Juventus/Both Teams to Score looks a superb bet.
Weekend Team News Analysis
Sevilla v Malaga
Mariano (RB) and Franco Vazquez (AM), Sevilla
Vazquez was a big money signing from Palermo in the summer but is suspended along with Mariano for this one. Sevilla have only won one of their last 12 matches when the right-back has been missing and have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 without him. Problems at both ends for Sevilla mean we'll take Malaga on the double chance at 2.63.
Granada v Real Sociedad
David Zurutuza (CM), Sociedad
Sociedad have won six of the 11 away matches Zurutuza has played since the start of last season while in the 15 he’s missed they’ve gone a dismal W3-D3-L9 while conceding two goals per game – exactly double the rate they’ve conceded with him. Granada have been improving and are unbeaten in three at home. Against a Sociedad team that were thrashed 5-1 in their last away game we'll take Granada on the Double Chance at 1.83.
Udinese v Crotone
Danilo (CB), Udinese
Danilo has missed just 16 Udinese games since 2011/12 – he’s made 190 appearances in that time. Moreover, they’ve conceded 50% more goals per game when he’s been missing and have won none of their last eight without him. Crotone have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks and almost took a point back from the San Siro in their last away game. They can certainly achieve that here and are 2.4 on the Double Chance.
After landing a double last weekend (one leg of the treble was postponed), and getting two out of three the weekend before that, its a 10/1 shot for our treble this time. Good Luck!
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