A-LEAGUE WEEK 11
NEWCASTLE JETS V ADELAIDE UNITED
The Jets take on Adelaide in the first match of the round in a match where anything could happen. Adelaide find themselves stuck on the bottom of the ladder and have only managed a solitary win all season, whereas Newcastle have been the definition of inconsistency. They recorded an away win in Perth for the first time since 2005 but continue to disappoint in somewhat easier fixtures.
Adelaide enter this match with the historical edge on their side, they are undefeated in their last six games against the Jets and managed to keep the opposition scoreless in all of those games but one. This will be a tougher task as I expect Newcastle to build on the momentum from that drought breaking win in Perth.
Although the recent history between these sides brings very little goals (4 goals in the past 5 matches), i believe this is a match for overs as both teams have shown they can concede very easily this year. A play on the overs for me.
WELLINGTON PHOENIX V WESTERN SYDNEY WANDERERS
Wellington take on the Wanderers who have welcomed back Kerem Bulut, Shannon Cole and Jerrad Tyson to the matchday squad. Tyson's inclusion is the more important name there as he will take over from the struggling Andrew Redmayne and I expect WSW to be a lot more assured at the back this round.
Berisha took apart the WSW defence as we thought he would and changes will surely have to be made to ensure the likes of Roy Krishna doesn't do the exact same thing.
It's very easy to like Wellington at home here, they are a team going through a crisis after the departure of stalwart Ernie Merrick and usually a team find that extra determination and incentive to get results right on the pitch. A 3-0 drubbing of Central Coast last week can only bring about more confidence and expectation from the home fans.
He couldn't get the job done last week but i'm confident Krishna will be on the scoresheet for this one so perhaps a play on Krishna scoring anytime into the Phoenix win could be worth a unit, however, we'll stick with Phoenix straight out here.
PERTH GLORY V SYDNEY FC
The run is continuing for Sydney but after Perth lost at home to Newcastle last week, I can't see them being that bad again this week. They got off to the perfect start, bagged an early goal and you thought they would've been well and truly home. However, this year is very different and the Jets uncharacteristically bounced back and found themselves getting the three points after Nabbout decided to show up.
I can imagine how low the morale must have been in the dressing room and also in training during the week for the Perth boys after that loss. To now turn around and face the league leaders who are undefeated should do nothing but spur them on. They can't afford another loss and face being out of the top 6.
Sydney are still playing lovely and attractive football and drawing at home to title challengers Melbourne City was still an okay result. I think travelling to Perth will provide a different kind of challenge for them, one I expect they'll definitely be up for
Perth are notorious for scoring quick goals this season and we'll be basing our move off that
MELBOURNE CITY V MELBOURNE VICTORY
The Melbourne derby is back on this week and with both teams finding form, it promises to be the most entertaining match of the round. Berisha, Fornaroli, Rojas and Cahill are all expected to play and there will definitely be fireworks here.
City almost did what nobody has done so far this season and that's beat Sydney FC. A late controversial penalty awarded to Sydney cancelled out City's earlier strike and also the chance of a priceless away win, one that could be seen as a six point win. They will be charged up for the derby nonetheless but having that bit of unfortunate luck go against you in a critical game will only spur on the City players who are looking to cut the deficit of Sydney's dominance.
Victory have been reinvigorated since their Rd 5 loss to Sydney and have managed to stay unbeaten since then. A dominant display by the most hated/loved man in A-League, Besart Berisha ensured a massive away win to WSW and having the derby match off the back of that can only be a positive thing
I like the draw here as both teams are well and truly hitting their form and there is no confidence in picking either side outright.
CENTRAL COAST MARINERS V BRISBANE ROAR
Roar head to Gosford for the final match of the round and one that I expect Roar to dominate. After an easy win against Adelaide, a match in which Kristensen bagged two quick goals to put the game to bed midway through the first half, they get to take on the Mariners.
It's always a good time to verse the Mariners as their defence will not be able to cope with Maclaren and co. In fact, Mariners have lost their last 6 matches against Roar and have only managed two goals, whereas Roar have managed 16. An incredible stat.
Micheal Theo gets welcomed back into the squad for Roar and Mariners welcome back Tavares who recovers from a small ankle injury. Unfortunately for Central Coast, Tavares hasn't got the ability to stop any of the Roar attackers that will take the field.
Petratos has been his sporadic self this year again but last week was one of his better performances, I expect him to get the nod again and be very hard to beat.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Week Twenty +2.24 16 14% Week Nineteen +20 11 182% Week Eighteen +12.16 11 111% Week Seventeen -5.88 15 -39% Week Sixteen -2.5 11 -23% Week Fifteen -15 15 -100% Week Fourteen +0.93 17 4% Week Thirteen +5.5 13 42% Week Twelve +3.05 18 17% Week Eleven -7.18 13 -55% Week Ten -2.07 18 -12% Week Nine +0.51 15 3% Week Eight -20 20 -100% Week Seven -3.22 16 -20% Week Six +10.2 14 73% Week Five -16 16 -100% Week Four -0.27 15 -2% Week Three -4.6 13 -35% Week Two -0.70 12 -6% Week One +1.05 12 9% Total -21.78 291 -7%