NFL PREVIEWS/PLAYS
...... with the 'Sixth Sense' from SixthSenseSports

SEASON 2009-10
Updated 1:00 PM AEDT, Saturday 6 February

NFL SUPERBOWL XLIV

I want to thank Mark at onthepunt.com for allowing me to post Best Bets again during the NFL season. The best bet record on these pages is now 16-8 this year.

BEST BETS
REG SEASON YTD 48-41 +8.40%
PLAYOFFS YTD 2-2 0.60%

3% NEW ORLEANS +5

INDIANAPOLIS -5 NEW ORLEANS 56.5

Colts struggled early on against the Jets in their Championship game but scored the games final 24 points for an easy 30-17 victory. They out gained the Jets 7.1yppl to 6.5yppl. But, a broken coverage 80 yard touchdown pass and a wildcat look pass from Brad Smith for 45 yards amounted for 125 of their 388 yards. Take away those two plays and they averaged just 4.5yppl. While you can t erase those plays, they aren t typical plays, at least not the wildcat look. The long 80 yard touchdown pass could be a concern against an explosive passing offense like the Saints. The Colts averaged 8.8yps against a tough Jets pass defense and ran for 4.2ypr while limiting a solid Jets rushing offense to 3.0ypr.

Meanwhile, the Saints escaped with an OT victory over the Vikings, 31-28. Minnesota out gained NO 5.8yppl to 4.7yppl, out rushed them 4.6ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed them 6.7yps to 5.9yps. The Vikings were minus four in the turnover category and that cost them the game. Much was made about the Saints defense being controlled by the Vikings but they were actually an average defense against the Vikings. It was the Saints offense that disappointed in that game. The Vikings were averaging about 5.7yppl and they gained 5.8yppl in that game. They averaged 6.9yps and gained 6.7yps in the game and they averaged 4.1ypr and gained 4.6ypr in the game. So, the Saints defense, which was almost completely healthy for that game, played the Vikings as an average defense, although their ability to beat up Brett Favre, played a huge role in the outcome of the game. I m not too concerned about the Saints offense because it has played well against good defenses this year but it definitely underperformed in that game.

Using regular season stats during meaningful games, Indy averaged 3.6ypr against 4.1ypr. They averaged 7.6yps against 6.3yps and 6.1yppl against 5.4yppl. On defense, Indy allows just 4.2ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The Saints run the ball better than Indy at 4.6ypr against 4.3ypr, throw the ball better at 7.9yps against 6.3yps and are better overall on offense at 6.4yppl against 5.4yppl. The defense isn t as good as the underrated Colts defense. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 6.2yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. Those numbers aren t exactly accurate because the Saints were hit hard on defense with injuries during the middle to late part of the season. The Saints played five games where they were missing three or more of their starters on defense this year. Their rough stretch at Washington and Atlanta saw them play without four and three of their starters respectively, including missing three starters in the secondary against the Redskins. While there is no question their defense isn t as good as the Colts, they aren t as bad as they looked the second half of the season with all of their injuries.

Numbers for this game favor the Colts by one point and predict about 59 points. NO qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 58-23-3, including 2-1 in this year s playoffs. These teams played four teams this year at the same location and the Saints fared even in those games. They defeated NE 38-17 while Indy won 35-34. NO defeated the Jets 24-10 while Indy won 30-17. They defeated Miami 46-34, while Indy won 27-23. NO defeated the Rams 28-23 while Indy destroyed the Rams 42-6. I don t believe this is a great resource to determine the winner of this game but the Saints certainly do not lose with this scenario. NO won their games by an average of 34-21, while Indy won by an average of 34-20. Looking at the median score, it was NO 33-20 and Indy 33-20 so nothing there that would indicate the Colts should be favored by five points in this game. I left off the Buffalo game because Indy pulled their starters.

Bottom line is the Saints run the ball better, throw the ball better and are good enough on defense to stay in this game. While the Saints defense isn t as good as the Colts, the fact they can run the ball is huge because it gives the Saints multiple ways to attack a good Colts defense, which improves their chances of moving the ball. While the Colts are a one dimensional team, they throw the ball so well and Peyton Manning is so good, it doesn t hurt them like it would another team. And, the fact their defense plays so well, works in their favor.

The lone concern here is I don t have the best defense but they are close enough, when combining the fact I am getting five points to make this a good value wager. While the numbers support the over and I think it could be high scoring, the total is simply set too high for me to bite on. Everything needs to almost go perfect for this game to go over the total. With two explosive offenses, it s very likely both teams will sit back in a cover two type defense and keep everything in front of them, forcing teams to dink and dunk the ball down the field. That will eat up clock and if some of those drives end up as field goals instead of touchdowns, it could hurt the chances of this game going over the total. Solid value play on the underdog. NEW ORLEANS 33 INDIANAPOLIS 30

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