GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 16TH MARCH
Rosehill has a terrific card of racing on Saturday and while there is plenty of rain predicted leading into Saturday, we all have our fingers crossed that the experts have those predictions wrong. Apart from the Golden Slipper, champion mare Winx will also be in action and again at a very short quote. UBET will have money back offers on ALL races at Rosehill on Saturday through the normal digital channels, so go to the website or the App to check out the T’s & C’s for those.
The barrier draw and the rain has seen some dramatic changes to the Slipper market. Houtzen has drawn out near the car park. Normally that would mean a huge drift in betting but perhaps that might be the place to be on Saturday? The QLD champ has been $3.80 out to $4.00 since the barrier draw but we are still seeing money for her. Houtzen attracted the biggest bet for the race so far when a Queensland customer placed $25,000 last week on her at $3.90. Ex-favourite She Will Reign is blowing like the north wind, $3.40 out to $5.50 this week. She also drew out but the worry for her is she was beaten at short odds on a heavy track two weeks ago. You never really know how 2yo’s will handle wet tracks as no two wet tracks are alike but punters are really warming to Catchy ($6.50-$5.50) and Pariah ($9.00-$8.00) in the latter part of the week. Ironically, Frolic ($11-$12) has eased in betting even though it was Frolic who defeated She Will Reign in the wet.
Gold Coast is the main meeting in Queensland on Slipper day and its Gold Coast Stakes day. The two main races are the Gold Market Quality Hcp over 1200m and the Gold Coast Stakes Quality Hcp over the 1800m. The track is currently a Heavy 8 so fingers crossed the track will have a chance to dry out before Saturday.
Tip: Frolic each way ($12/$3.75)
There is no doubt the theatrics in India, both on and off the pitch have given the current test series huge exposure in Australia. Notwithstanding the fact there is a lot of footy on here this weekend, betting activity on the third test has been terrific. The series is level at a win apiece and with only four tests due to be played the third test is now extremely relevant. Australia has had some well documented injuries which will rule a couple out and it appears as though the Indians will be given the luxury of picking their own pitch from three pitches that will be presented to them. That news has seen India cut from $1.72 to $1.55, Australia $3.75 and the draw now friendless at $6.25.
The draw opened up a much shorter $4.25 but the pitch condition lends itself to a result so I can understand why the punters are steering clear of the draw.
Tip: India ($1.55).
There has been a lot of speculation around this week as to which (if any) teams will be missing from a revamped Super Rugby competition moving forward. The sides under most pressure appear to be the Western Force and the Cheetahs and ironically their form hasn’t been too bad in the few rounds of the 2017 season so far. However, looking at the upcoming round we see that two of the sides playing are conceding 30 points start in the opening lines, with another giving up 17 points start. Those types of prices/lines are not conducive to big betting turnover and there is always a correlation between betting and the popularity of sporting events, so I can understand the concerns with the future of Super Rugby the way it is currently structured.
All that aside, there are still eight matches to wade through this week and while most of them are one sided in regards to favouritism, there are a couple of interesting matches. The Crusaders host the Blues on Friday night in Christchurch and we are still trying to work out how the Crusaders defeated the Reds last week. The Kiwi’s won 22-20 on the siren, which means they are still undefeated from three matches. The cumulative winning points is only 9 but given the Crusaders are notoriously slow starters each season, that form-line is a big plus going into Friday’s match against the Blues. Punters are happy to take the $1.30 for the Crusaders as the Blues were poor against an undermanned Highlanders outfit last week.
The Waratahs return from a trip to South Africa winless from 2 matches. They did take a depleted squad and look stronger on paper this week when they host the Brumbies in Sydney on Saturday night. Both sides have scored scratchy wins over the Force so far this season and that is the only real form we can take into this game but it does appear UBET punters think it will be an easy victory to the Waratahs.
Tip: Sunwolves +31.5 against the Bulls ($1.95)
The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Orlando is always fantastic viewing and while eight time winner Tiger Woods will again be on the sidelines this year, it is still a great field. Jason Day won this event last year but as we know has endured all sorts of problems since but will tee off as a $15 chance on Thursday. With the US Masters just around the corner every player will be looking to run into some decent form and those at the head of the market (including Day) have all met with support. Rory McIlroy is the $8.00 favourite with UBET ahead of Henrik Stenson ($9.00), then follows Day along with Hideki Matsuyama on the $15 line. Matsuyama has been one of the in-form players over the last 6 months and in that time UBET golf customers have really warmed to him achieving lucrative results. For those looking for an absolute ‘bolter’ with a hope, perhaps Matt Every ($251) is the way to go. Matt Every won the Bay Hill in both 2014 and 2015 (defeated Stenson that year) and while his subsequent form hasn’t been great, he may be worth a small each way ticket at least.
Tip: Justin Rose to win ($19) & Matt Every top 5 ($51).
The pre-season matches for the AFL are finished and now we eagerly await the start of round 1 which will get under way Thursday week. What did we learn from those matches? Maybe not a terrible lot but it does appear as though West Coast, St Kilda and Melbourne could be the improvers this season and all three teams have been trimmed to win the flag. The Eagles have been $13-$11 and both St Kilda and Melbourne have been $26-$21. On the flip side, there have been a few sides who have drifted, Adelaide is out to $8.50 from $8.00. Round 1 markets have been open for a couple of months and what is interesting is that six of the home sides are the outsiders and home sides have a good record in recent times in the AFL. St Kilda also opened as slight $2.00 outsiders against Melbourne but with smart money on, they are now $1.85 favourites. They look good and Melbourne invariably struggle at Etihad Stadium.
The WAFL season begins this week and those matches will open on Friday the day of the game. The other State comps get under way over the next few weeks and there has already been some activity in those premiership markets. In the TSL, North Launceston have been backed from $2.15 into $1.95, one of the rare occasions where a side is odds on to win a flag before a ball is kicked in anger! In the SANFL, Norwood have been $13-$5.50 while Port Adelaide are also big movers, now $5.50 as well after opening at $10.
The last round of the Women’s AFL is played this week. Minor premiers Brisbane have already secured a home final and are eagerly awaiting their opposition pending the results of this weeks matches. Brisbane will play either Melbourne or Adelaide in the final with Adelaide in the box seat, if both teams secure a victory against their respective sides Adelaide should make it through on a percentage basis. Back to this weekend, there are whispers around that Brisbane may rest key players for the grand final and Carlton have nothing to lose so it might be worth an investment on Sunday.
Tip: Women’s ALF - Carlton to beat Brisbane ($1.80).
Melbourne will again host the opening race of the F1 season Sunday week and the event will take on a new look this year following the retirement of Nico Rosberg after he won the Drivers Championship in 2016. Rosberg won the Australian GP last year as well as in 2015 with his teammate Lewis Hamilton splitting those wins in 2015. Hamilton is normally the firm favourite in each F1 race when the markets are first issued by UBET and that is the case again for Melbourne, where Hamilton is the clear favourite at $2.00. Sebastian Vettel, a winner there in 2011 is second elect at $4.25, while Valtteri Bottas who replaces Rosberg in the Mercedes team is next in line at $5.50. The Australian Daniel Riccardo is also well in the market ay $9 and has been impressive during off season testing for Red Bull. Detailed assessment of the Grand Prix will be in next week’s issue.
Tip: Ferrari and Red Bull both look good but wait for next week.