GERARD DAFFY'S UBET NEWS – THURSDAY 3RD NOVEMBER
The late money in the Australia v Scotland match in the Four Nations was for Scotland with 44.5 then 42.5 points start ($1.90), and the final score-line of 54-12 in favour of the Kangaroos saw those who took the ‘plus’ for the Scots narrowly get home.
In the other match, a decent plunge on England ($2.20-$1.91) just fell short when New Zealand defeated them by 17-16 courtesy of a Shaun Johnson field goal.
This week there will be a double header rather than the 2 matches spread over 2 days. England face Scotland first up and the line has been set at 34.5, which seems fair enough given what we saw last week. There has been early money for England at the minus, similar to what happened last week with Australia before the late push for Scotland with the start.
We have a decent form-line on the Australia v NZ match given the 2 sides played in Perth less than a month ago. After a tight first half, the floodgates opened in the 2nd half before the Kangaroos went on to win by 16 points. Our league traders think it will be a lot closer this time but punters disagree, there is any amount of money for Australia at $1.28 and to also cover a 10 point line.
The Turkish Open will be played at the Regnum Resort in Antalya beginning Thursday. This is only the 4th running of the Turkish Open and the first at this course, but Frenchman Victor Dubuisson has the form on the board. Dubuisson has won two of three, winning in 2015 and also in 2013, yet is well down the betting at $81. Bernd Weisberger and Andy Sullivan head the market at $13, with Scott Hend, one of only 2 Aussies in the field, at $41.
The Shriners Hospitals for Children Open is the US PGA Tour event, and it will be played at Summerlin in Las Vegas. Ryan Moore is the $19 favourite in a wide open betting event, with Brooks Koepka next in line at $23. Ironically Koepka won the Turkish Open 2 years ago, but he is a much improved player since then. Smylie Kaufman is the defending champ and $67 to repeat the dose, while Cameron Smith is the $3.50 favourite to beat 8 others in our Top Aussie market and $67 to win the title.
Most of the big guns found the back of the net in round four – highlighted by a Bruno Fornaroli brace against Adelaide and a Besart Berisha hat trick against Wellington – and there is some early money about to suggest more of the same in week five.
Fornaroli is $2.00 to score a goal when Melbourne City line up against Brisbane on Friday night, with Roar money man Jamie Maclaren, who also put his name on the sheet last week, hot on his heels at $2.10.
Berisha is a slightly longer $2.50 quote to find the net against $4.25 co-title favourites Sydney FC on Saturday and may ease to an even better price given the Sky Blues are $2.00 into $1.88 to win the match.
Punters are yet to make a run on either side in the Wellington-Newcastle fixture, which is no great surprise. Phoenix are winless and without a goal from general play after four weeks, yet the New Zealanders go in $1.98 favourites due to a severe depletion of defensive stocks at the Jets.
Have the Australian selectors got it right? Are we going well enough to be a short priced favourite in the First Test? A couple of interesting questions there and while we won’t know the answer to the first until after the test in Perth is over, UBET customers have been more than happy to be on South Africa to win, so I suppose that answers the second question. The Aussies opened at $1.80 when this market first went up, with South Africa at $3.75 and the draw at $4.00. The South Africans have attracted 3 times as many bets as the Aussies have and twice the amount of money with the price into $2.85. Australia are out to $2.00, with the draw at $4.60. Historically draws are rare on the WACA pitch, but it is well worth remembering the ‘road’ that was presented there last year, so perhaps we should not rule out the draw completely. The betting to win the series has gone down a similar path with the bulk of the money for South Africa, now $3.10 after opening at $4.00. UBET will have an extensive ‘live’ coverage throughout the Perth test.
With an unsettled roster and a rookie coach at the helm, the Sydney Kings were tipped to struggle in the early stages of this NBL season. Instead, the ‘Violet Crumbles’ have defied their moniker to win five of their first six games and, at $2.75, have become the hottest championship favourites in recent memory. If they can continue the way they have started the season it may not be too long before they are ‘odds on’ for the title.
No other team comes close to matching the Kings’ roster depth – ex-NBA guard Steve Blake is only a recent addition to the starting five and star centre Julian Khazzouh is yet to lace a boot through injury – a hushed question is being asked in hoops circles; can anyone stop the juggernaut?
Cairns will give it a red hot go when they host them this weekend, although the early odds and money trail suggest the Kings’ roll will continue. Sydney has attracted all of the early money at $1.65, while Cairns is unwanted at $2.25.
Sydney last won a championship in 2005, but their form and the cash rolling in suggests that UBET NBL fans think this is their year.
The Supercars go from one extreme to the other this week at Pukekohe on the outskirts of Auckland, New Zealand. The last 3 Supercar meetings were the Enduro’s which are all team events, but things return to normal this week with the cars back to a single driver. This week we will see true Supercar sprinting with 4 races, all of 35 laps. Last year there were 2 races of 21 laps which were won by Jamie Whincup and Dave Reynolds, while Whincup also won the only race on Sunday over 69 laps. Pukekohe is a very tight course where it is a big advantage to be at the front of the grid, so we have the quicker cars right at the top of the betting, and that is where the money is going. Jamie Whincup and ex Kiwi Shane Van Gisbergen share favouritism at $3.00 to win race 1, and they are followed by Craig Lowndes ($5.50) and Scott McLaughlin at $9.00.
The US election to date has been like watching a soap opera and from a betting perspective there have been several twists and turns. While Donald Trump has never been priced as favourite, there is no doubt that Australians think he can win as there has been money for him all the way through the campaign. Trump got as short as $2.50, got out to $5.50 three weeks ago, but since Hillary Clinton encountered some potential problems with an email chain last week, Trump has been backed all the way down to $3.15, and may continue to firm even further.
The Melbourne Cup of horse racing has been run and won for another year and what that means is that the greyhound version is not far away. One of the main lead-ups to the Cup is the Shootout, a different concept with a 4 dog field, and that will be run at Sandown this Friday night. The Shootout has been around for many years now, and while you might think that the fastest greyhound will win, it doesn’t always pan out that way.
The 4 runners this year are capable of running the hands off the clock. Dundee Osprey is better suited out wide but has the red box, and is the $2.70 equal favourite. Dundee Osprey recently won the Speed Series here, and is the one to beat. Queenslander Outside Pass ($4.00) is one of the fastest greyhounds in the country but ruins her chances by finding trouble, so a smaller field will suit. Zamborra Brockie ($2.70 equal fav) returned to winning form at Sandown last week in 29.40 on a slow track. He has a huge following and looks like he can nearly lead although drawn out in 5. Then we have the South Australian champ Worm Burner ($7.00). Worm Burner trounced Zamborra Brockie in the recent National Sprint title in Adelaide, where he has done nearly all of his racing and that is the major concern here. He is well drawn out wide, but has only had 3 runs away from his home track. For the record, we think Dundee Osprey can win off the inside draw.