AFL Grand Final Preview

AFL GRAND FINAL

Sydney v Western Bulldogs

What a match-up we have for the 2016 decider. Two ultra-defensive, high possession teams will battle it out. The Swans opened 10-point faves with bookies laying both sides through the week. Aliir Aliir and Marsh make way for McVeigh and Mills who have been deemed fit. No Suckling for the Dogs who looked ready - might he still play? 

Given the season I’ve had, this could be the kiss of death, but I think the Swans win this comfortably. Yes, the Bulldogs have done nothing wrong over the past three weeks and have narrowly defeated the Swans in their past two meetings. I just feel that the stress of the Grand Final build-up might get to the Dogs. The pressure will be immense and it’s a stage like no other - something that a lot of the Swans players (13 to 0 for the Dogs) have dealt with before. Not to mention the 62-year Premiership drought!

The Swans were very impressive last week against Geelong at the G and look to be ready to peak. The Dogs have been flying but there is a thought that they have already played their GF. It’s a huge achievement to make the big dance from 7th on the ladder. I'm sure the Doggies 'believe', but I think class will prevail.

The total at 165.5 looks somewhat tricky. The weather looks fine, but a dour struggle is certainly on the cards. As always in the GF’s, a good chance of some genuine junk time. Some solid value looks to lay in the second half being the highest scoring.

For the Norm Smith Medal, the Brownlow runner up Luke Parker is one of the favourites and rightly so. The courageous midfielder is a tackling machine and was a narrow second-best on ground to a 5-goal Franklin the last time the two teams met. If the likes of Hannebery and Kennedy are well contained, he is the one. Another prolific ball winner, Tom Mitchell averages 28 touches and is generally available at around 16/1. It might be worth waiting for the Norm Smith bonus specials on the day for this market.

Not the season we were looking for profit-wise, but we have had a decent run over the past few years. Good luck for the big one and happy punting over the summer.

OTP Recommendation

Sydney -10.53 at 2.00Bookie Image 1-3


OTP Recommendation

Sydney 40+1 at 5.00Bookie Image 2-1


OTP Recommendation

Highest Scoring Half: 2nd4 at 1.77Bookie Image 3-4


OTP Recommendation

Norm Smith: Parker to Win1 at 9.50Bookie Image 4-1


OTP Recommendation

Norm Smith: Mitchell to Win0.5 at 17Bookie Image 5-0.5

otp odds

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  • WEEKRESULTSSTAKESROI
    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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