AFL: Cats and GWS favoured

FINALS WEEK THREE

Geelong v Sydney

A relatively comfortable win for the Swans last week - but it came at a price, losing McVeigh to injury. The other main fitness concern was the classy Gary Rohan who has been named.

The million-dollar question is how the Swans will back up off the six-day break up against the Cats who with the week off, have only played one game in the prior 26 days. Or will Geelong be short on match-fitness?

It’s clear that the Swans are the all-round better team – as they proved with a big Round 16 win in Geelong - but surely no one can be certain that they will run it out in a tight final quarter. Hard to argue with where the line has fallen at around 8 points to Sydney. A good popcorn match awaits with a possible in-the-run dabble.

NO PLAY

otp odds

GWS v Western Bulldogs

Both teams come into this without having put a foot wrong thus far in the finals series. GWS earnt the week off with that huge win over Sydney while the Dogs shocked West Coast and backed it up last week against a tired Hawthorn.

A lot of history against the Bulldogs as they look to reach their first Grand Final in over 50 years. On the other side, GWS appear destined to be the history-makers this year and in the years to come. As good as the Dogs defence is, the fast running GWS midfield and potent forwards in the name of Patton, Lobb, Cameron and even Shiel will take some stopping.

I was keen on the early line at around -13, but some Thursday steam has seen this move to 18-20 at time of writing. The home advantage and week off should prove far too much. Either way, as long as it’s not too tight, there will be plenty of junk time – value looks to be with the 2nd half over.

OTP Recommendation

2nd Half Total Over 85.54 at 1.90Bookie Image 1+3.6

otp odds

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  • WEEKRESULTSSTAKESROI
    Grand Final -9.5 9.5 -100%
    Finals Week Three +3.6 4 90%
    Finals Week Two -3 3 -100%
    Finals Week One +1.82 10 18%
    Round Twenty-Three -9 9 -100%
    Round Twenty-Two -6.8 14 -49%
    Round Twenty-One +5.25 12 44%
    Round Twenty -4.44 14 -32%
    Round Nineteen +4 9.5 42%
    Round Eighteen -6.28 14 -45%
    Round Seventeen -0.15 15.5 -1%
    Round Sixteen -9 9 -100%
    Round Fifteen -8 8 -100%
    Round Fourteen -0.24 6 -4%
    Round Thirteen +4.19 10 42%
    Round Twelve +10.93 17 64%
    Round Eleven +0.1 13 1%
    Round Ten +6.68 13 51%
    Round Nine +1.34 12 11%
    Round Eight -13.74 19.5 -72%
    Round Seven -3.21 15 -21%
    Round Six -0.6 14 -4%
    Round Five +2.37 9 26%
    Round Four +5.93 12 49%
    Round Three -4.15 10 -42%
    Round Two -1.84 18 -10%
    Total -33.74 300 -11%

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