AFL ROUND 8
Adelaide v Geelong
The Crows were dour last week in a shootout with the Dogs while the Cats rolled on at home with a big win over West Coast.
A big emphasis on Patrick Dangerfield heading back to the Adelaide Oval. He hasn’t let the Cats down this year, averaging just under 30 touches a game. The Cats are marking a lot more inside-50 so there will be a heap of pressure on the relatively inexperienced Adelaide backline.
Meanwhile, Taylor Walker really needs to lift for the Crows, they can’t rely on Betts and Lynch all the time. The last five meetings between the two have gone to the home team and think the Crows represent some value to continue this trend.
Brisbane v Collingwood
The Lions were very disappointing in a 78-point loss at Port Adelaide last week while the pressure builds even more on Nathan Buckley after another average loss to Carlton.
The Lions will be more comfortable at home but after the Thursday night steam has settled, the +9.5 Collingwood is tempting. Brisbane lose Rockliff but have two good ins with Merrett and Taylor back while Beams will be better for the first-up run.
I think the value lies in the total. Being a night match with more than likely a little dew around, a lean with these two teams becomes even stronger. These two are averaging a combined 165 points this year and both rank poorly for marks/inside 50s. Bet down to 191.5.
Richmond v Sydney
Fair to say it was a much-improved effort from the Tigers last week but it all came to nothing for spread backers as the Hawks ran away in the last quarter. Similarly, Sydney gather momentum as the game went on for an 81-point win over Essendon.
Richmond have tasted their fair share of success against the Swans in recent times. Rance returns from his one-week suspension and was vitally missed down back last week. I think the Tigers can stay with the Swans.
These two traditionally play out dour low-scoring encounters and it’s not hard to see a repeat this week. With a lot on the line, it would not surprise to see the clamps well and truly on at some stage. Add some swirling wind at the ‘G’ and the under represents some solid value.
Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
The Demons come into this full of confidence after a massive win over the Suns while as mentioned, the Dogs edged the Crows in a shootout.
So all the talk here is on the Bulldogs and their first match for the year outside of the calm confines of Etihad Stadium. The forecast of a brisk nor-wester with the chance of a shower won’t make the transition any easier.
Melbourne won the corresponding fixture this time last year by 39-points and they have improved immeasurably since.
West Coast v St Kilda
The Saints all but got home last week in a huge final quarter comeback against the Roos while West Coast were torn up at Geelong.
St Kilda proved they are much better than a bottom four team last week and let’s not forget they got the better of Melbourne by 40 odd points the week prior. They were belted at Subiaco late last year, but are travelling much better now.
A big test for West Coast to bounce back from a pretty poor road performance. Both teams match up very closely on season stats. I think the Saints can stay in this for a good part of the game and are a huge price to lead at the main break.
WEEK RESULTS STAKES ROI Grand Final
Finals Week Three
Finals Week Two
Finals Week One